Forward

Why is the US the world's sole superpower? Let us examine the column by the late and magnificent Eleanor Roosevelt, dated Jan 4th 1945. (http://www.gwu.edu/~erpapers/myday/displaydoc.cfm?_y=1945&_f=md056990)

WASHINGTON, Wednesday—We had a real treat yesterday. A young man now in the army had written to me about some writing which he hoped to do in the future, and sent me copies of the camp paper he is editing. As he was home on furlough, I invited him to lunch.

In the course of conversation it turned out that he had worked with Paderewski, and so we asked if he would like to see the piano on which this great artist practiced when he stayed here. Afterward I asked our young man to play on the piano in the East Room, which is so rarely used nowadays since we no longer have musicales or evening entertainments. It was really a treat, and was much enjoyed by one of my other guests, a boy back from the Pacific who brought the President a war club which was a gift from the head of one of the villages in British Samoa.

In the evening young Colonel Hoover, who is one of our son Elliott's pilots, brought his new wife to dine with us. The colonel had not gone back with the rest of the crew because he decided to get married, but he will follow them after a brief leave. Out of the whole crew only one enlisted man and one officer went back unmarried, which shows, I think, the urge that the men who go overseas have to leave someone waiting just for them on this side of the ocean.

A group of student veterans of World War II, who are at present studying at George Washington University under the vocational rehabilitation and the G.I. Bill of Rights programs, came in at 7 o'clock to see a movie. Afterward they came up to the StateDining Room for refreshments, and we all sat around and talked for a while.

After an early lunch today, Mrs. Henry Morgenthau Jr. and I are going to New York City. Tonight we are going to the play, but I will tell you more about that tomorrow.

In the meantime I want to tell you about a very lovely Christmas card from the Rev. Frederick Brown Harris, pastor of one of our Washington churches. The first two paragraphs struck me as something we might all find comforting in these days, so I pass them along to you:

"In the year 1809, with Napoleon on the march, men's feverish thoughts were on the latest news of the war. And all the while, in their own homes, babies were being born. But who could think about babies? Everybody was thinking of battles.

"In that very year, in the birth lists, were written the names of Gladstone and Tennyson and Oliver Wendell Holmes and Darwin and Abraham Lincoln and Chopin and Mendelssohn and Samuel Morley and Elizabeth Barrett Browning. But nobody thought of babies. Everybody was thinking of battles."

E. R.

(COPYRIGHT 1945 BY UNITED FEATURE SYNDICATE, INC.)

"But nobody thought of babies. Everybody thought of battles." - That's a powerful message. A message of hope, of peace, and of the appreciation of men and history; and the future. 

Malaysia Debt Crisis

On July 5th, Bank Negara Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti announced that the central bank had set a maximum period of 10 years for personal loans and 35 years for housing loans for civil servants to curb household debt. This is certainly a response to the national debt 'crisis' - it's not a crisis till it hits!.

Including contingent liabilities (guarantees), our national debt till 2012 could be up to RM1.743 trillion (Thanks to Pak Sako from Centre of Policy Initiatives). That is a TRILLION more than the current published debt. Most of our debt are internal, and approximately RM444 billion can be attributed to construction and housing (according to an official from Bank Negara). The office vacancy rate in Klang Valley is 23% for Q1 2013 according to the NAPIC (National Property Information Centre) Commercial Stock report, or could be up to 40% according to another officer. 

Why does the construction/housing/office debt matters to the average Malaysian?

Here are a few quotes from my favourite Fed Governor Dr Janet Yellen of SF in 2005 expressing concerns over the housing bubble in the US:

" ...there are downside risks to economic growth relating to the housing market. This sector has been a key source of strength in the current expansion, and the concern is that, if house prices fell, the negative impact on household wealth could lead to a pullback in consumer spending. Certainly, analyses do indicate that house prices are abnormally high—that there is a "bubble" element, even accounting for factors that would support high house prices, such as low mortgage interest rates. So a reversal is certainly a possibility. Moreover, even the portion of house prices that is explained by low mortgage rates is at risk."Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#p3IJWqTiB9b0pE4t.99 

And in 2006, about "ghost towns" in the West

According to some of our contacts elsewhere in this Federal Reserve District, data like these are actually "behind the curve," and they're willing to bet that things will get worse before they get better. For example, a major home builder has told me that the share of unsold homes has topped 80 percent in some of the new subdivisions around Phoenix and Las Vegas, which he labeled the new "ghost towns" of the West.Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#p3IJWqTiB9b0pE4t.99 

The scene certainly appears surreal when we drive by new housing estates around the Klang Valley, Penang, and the Iskandar region. What does this continual trajectory mean to our national economic progress? 

IMF MD Christine Lagarde had denoted the unhealthiness of over our national economy specifying 3 key concerns - FDI, high debt and inequality. She had instructed six remedies:

1) The need to attract more FDIs

2) National policies that are disrupting the free market

3) GLCs that are impeding the competitiveness of the private sector

4) Acknowledging total national debt - including all contingent liabilities

5) Regional cooperation

6) Liberalizing the economy 

APEC will be held at Bali this coming October, and the TPPA is expected to be concluded by then, in time for President Obama visit to Malaysia. Would the internal provisions cover item 2,3, and 4? The content of the negotiations are held in secret. 

My prediction is that these items will be excluded, and the TPPA agreement signed. This would not bode well for our national economy, as a further liberalization of our service sector will phase out our domestic players and increase cost to our already over-taxed consumers. I hope that our government realizes the unintended consequence of this Agreement, and will ensure that measures to protect our economic sovereignty are instilled into the agreement.

Interesting events which happened this week:

1) China had propose to back the yuan with gold.

2) Ex-President Jimmy Carter praises Edward Snowden

3) Detroit filled for bankrupcy

4) Prime Minister Yingluck rice subsidy is costing 8% of the Thai budget, with 17 million tonnes as reserve. 

Each of the above items are worthy of a post!

GEORGE ORWELL: WELLS, HITLER AND THE WORLD STATE

A fabulous essay by Orwell, thanks to Paul Krugman and Brad Delong for bringing this to my attention:

Wells, Hitler and the World State: All sensible men for decades past have been substantially in agreement with what Mr. Wells says; but the sensible men have no power and, in too many cases, no disposition to sacrifice themselves. Hitler is a criminal lunatic, and Hitler has an army of millions of men, aeroplanes in thousands, tanks in tens of thousands. For his sake a great nation has been willing to overwork itself for six years and then to fight for two years more, whereas for the common-sense, essentially hedonistic world-view which Mr. Wells puts forward, hardly a human creature is willing to shed a pint of blood.

Before you can even talk of world reconstruction, or even of peace, you have got to eliminate Hitler, which means bringing into being a dynamic not necessarily the same as that of the Nazis, but probably quite as unacceptable to ‘enlightened’ and hedonistic people. What has kept England on its feet during the past year? In part, no doubt, some vague idea about a better future, but chiefly the atavistic emotion of patriotism, the ingrained feeling of the English-speaking peoples that they are superior to foreigners. For the last twenty years the main object of English left-wing intellectuals has been to break this feeling down, and if they had succeeded, we might be watching the S.S. men patrolling the London streets at this moment.

Similarly, why are the Russians fighting like tigers against the German invasion? In part, perhaps, for some half-remembered ideal of Utopian Socialism, but chiefly in defence of Holy Russia (the ‘sacred soil of the Fatherland’, etc. etc.), which Stalin has revived in an only slightly altered from. The energy that actually shapes the world springs from emotions — racial pride, leader-worship, religious belief, love of war — which liberal intellectuals mechanically write off as anachronisms, and which they have usually destroyed so completely in themselves as to have lost all power of action….

Because he belonged to the nineteenth century and to a non-military nation and class, he could not grasp the tremendous strength of the old world which was symbolised in his mind by fox-hunting Tories. He was, and still is, quite incapable of understanding that nationalism, religious bigotry and feudal loyalty are far more powerful forces than what he himself would describe as sanity. Creatures out of the Dark Ages have come marching into the present, and if they are ghosts they are at any rate ghosts which need a strong magic to lay them. The people who have shown the best understanding of Fascism are either those who have suffered under it or those who have a Fascist streak in themselves. A crude book like The Iron Heel, written nearly thirty years ago, is a truer prophecy of the future than either Brave New World or The Shape of Things to Come.

If one had to choose among Wells's own contemporaries a writer who could stand towards him as a corrective, one might choose Kipling, who was not deaf to the evil voices of power and military ‘glory’. Kipling would have understood the appeal of Hitler, or for that matter of Stalin, whatever his attitude towards them might be. Wells is too sane to understand the modern world. The succession of lower-middle-class novels which are his greatest achievement stopped short at the other war and never really began again, and since 1920 he has squandered his talents in slaying paper dragons. But how much it is, after all, to have any talents to squander.

P.S. This was written in the summer of 1941 

Jolted - The state of political reality

Laugh, my friends, and dance and sing!
Or weep and wail with sorrow.
What California is today,
The rest will be tomorrow.
 -Maroon Bulldog

The call for unity is loud, after a tedious and competitive general election. To some leaders - Saifuddin Nasution, Mat Sabu, Ali Rustam, Kong Cho Ha, Raja Nong Chik - the results were brutal. A victorious display became naught owing to a concoction of over-confidence and arrogance. A speedy retirement for the soon to be ex-MCA sec gen, and the ex-MB of Malacca; and for Saifuddin Nasution, Mat Sabu and Raja Nong Chik, political survival will depend on the individual political fortitude. As for the winners - DSAI, Azmin Ali, Nurul Izzah, Fuziah Salleh, Rafizi Ramli of PKR; Lim Guan Eng, Liew Chin Tong, Tony Pua, Teresa Kok, Ong Kian Ming of DAP; Mustafa Ali, Nik Muhamad, Husam Musa, Nasruddin Hassan Tantawi of PAS; Liow Tiong Lai, Ong Ka Chuan, and Ong Tee Keat of MCA; and PM Najib and DPM Muyiddin, Hishammuddin, Zahid Hamidi, and Khairy Jamaluddin - the internal positioning of these leaders will be closely monitored. Already shots had been fired!

1) The fight for Selangor MB
It is outright obvious that Azmin Ali is gunning for the MB-ship before the GE. He has position his team well within the PKR hierarchy; and as candidates for the GE. His closest competitor, Saifuddin Nasution lost in his bid for the Kulim Bandar Baharu seat. The only resistance left is the present MB, TS Khalid Ibrahim, who has indicated, before the GE, that intend to stay at all course, even if PR loses the state. Hence his 'escape' to Port Klang, and even that won with a minuscule vote of barely 3000 votes.

Despite the home advantage, AA failed to acknowledge 2 issues - PKR getting less seats than its partners; and public perception. The former is known to be the most probable scenario, and the second is part of any politician inbuilt function. AA performed catastrophically in managing this aftermath. By refusing to plan for what could be the most probable and not having a well thought plan for the MB-ship, AA had certainly disappointed many operatives. The throne was his for the taking, yet he chose the worst unimaginable actions - Not showing up and "QQ"-ing for the Kelana Jaya Stadium Rally on Wednesday, where more than 120,000 supporters turned up; and the attempt by his men to 'scare' off the party by indicating that AA might quit with 15 MPs, in so handling over 2/3rd majority to BN. Rather than to quell the rumors immediately, he allowed it to fester into the minds of the public (image taken a huge hit); and to call for a PC on Friday, with unremarkable results. Intentionally or not, it was a bluff that can easily be called!

Only political novices made such mistakes. His team should be fired for such big screw ups. If any good comes out of this, is that his team is now 'visible' to both allies and adversaries. This is like the failure of the Japanese to seize Guadalcanal after a battled victory, but to retreat - won the battle but lost the war!

In contrast look at the steps taken by MB TS Khalid, (1) called for a meeting T+1 after D-day with all his allies to forge a workable solution to the premiership. (2) Go for the offense to create both internal and external pressure. (3) Take credit for the 2/3rd victory and have good public relations.

Azmin Ali has allies, and he should consult with them more often. Things would have been different if he:
1) Take credit for the victory (since he ran the grassroots and his men were all over) and declare his MB-ship immediately.
2) Be gracious and magnanimous, the rally on Wednesday was a celebration of victory. The sentiment was jubilee with supporters looking forward to the next battle. A golden opportunity lost!
3) Have between 3-5 PAS members with him, this could have easily be done as the MB controls the exco positions.
4) Have his men go on the attacks, and to declare their support! (To date only Zuraida spoke but that was too little too late)
5) Display leadership. Eunuchs cannot be emperors. Internal maneuvering is useless when you don't hold the chips. Power lies in perception and do not issue a threat in which cannot be fulfilled.

P.S. Do not attempt to appear cute after a PR fiasco. Seriously, if AA intends to helm the premiership, he needs a new team. Serious reform is needed.

2) PKR Elections
The battle lines are drawn. Saifuddin Nasution will probably be appointed as a Senator when a vacancy arises - probably around 2015. As of now, his Sec-gen position is in limbo and other party seniors are already gunning that position. Tenacity is the key.

I) Azmin Ali might make a move to the presidency, but he has to outmaneuver Kak Wan internally to retirement. A direct fight for the presidency will end in sure defeat. With TSK in a solid state, Kak Wan has the necessary cover to remain the President. Elections have consequences!

II) His best option is to retain the DP; with Saifuddin's lost, no leaders in the party can mount a credible offense. Tian Chua might advice Rafizi to strike but that would be a futile attempt with disastrous consequences. It would also be unwise for Princess Reformasi, Nurul Izzah, to contemplate such an attempt. The call to action will be loud. Hopefully political sanity remains triumph. 

III) Sec-Gen - Several elders have indicated their desire for this position.

IV) Vice-Presidents and MPPs - If there's any guarantee, is that the fight will be expensive. Hopefully the party will segment the states to lower the costs, and to have a more equitable fight.

May the odds ever be in your favor!

TBC - Next series on the internal dilemma/positioning of DAP and PAS

P121: David Slays Goliath A 2nd Time - Organizing Matters

A win is a win, regardless of 100 votes, 1000 votes, or 10,000 votes - LP Operative, 2012

It was barely 9 pm, when the internal tabulation of Borang 14 showed Nurul Izzah Anwar, Puteri Reformasi, totaled a win over FT Minister Raja Nong Chik by ~1847 votes. The team was elated, but the sentiment was held back; owing to potential last minute 'ballot swapping'. A huge crowd of supporters surrounded the station, ever ready to 'charge' if any fraud was to occur. There were some controversies. In honesty, the SPR agents and police rightly handled the situation. Around 11.30, the EC announced Puteri Reformasi as the winner - Nurul Izzah Anwar slays Goliath a 2nd time.

Strategies:
1) It was known that this battle would be formidable, as Raja Nong Chik, the Federal Territories Minister, had started his campaign in 2010. He possessed and spent almost the entire allocated budget ~RM200 mil, in Lembah Pantai itself. This is in addition to the amount UMNO allocated for the election, and ~RM50 mil of his own resources.
2) Polling agent, counting agent (PACA) operations started in 2011. Most of our PACA members attended 12 training classes. The counting agents were selected in utmost discretion; to prevent leakage and any attempts to buy them off. Only veterans were placed in key areas. The team is truly grateful to the hundreds of professionals who volunteered their time to make this campaign a success. The law behind this successful operation - "If you want to volunteer, be 100% committed; else don't bother!"
3) There were black areas, grey areas, and white areas. Any attempt to make black areas white would be a futile attempt and a waste of resources. Victory lies in Bangsar - an aim of 85% voter turnout. Actual voter turnout exceeded 85%, and victory was within grasped. Turnout in 2008 was barely 70%.
4) GOTV operations - phone banking, canvassing, public programs etc were concentrated to create this miracle.
5) Next target - Sri Sentosa. This area had been neglected by the BN government for generations. The objective was to give the voters the proper respect. The result - 70% for PKR.
6) Programs were organized to micro target potential voters in grey areas such as in Sri Pahang and Pantai Permai. An increase Malay swing back to BN was to be expected.
7) A committed team is needed to win!

Raja Nong Chik's Mistakes
1) Counting the eggs before hatching - RNC expected a victory of 4-5 k votes owing to almost 3k postal voting, and an increase Malay population. He did not envision a possibility of at least 85% Chinese turnout. In fact he was already celebrating his victory, by sending invitation cards to his neighbors for a 'victory' party at TTDI during the afternoon. Though the Malay votes did swung back to BN, it was not substantial as anticipated.
2) Subpar campaign team - Despite the immense resources available, RNC could not pull this victory. Campaign matters, and a successful campaign requires a committed and well-abled team. A team of winners is more preferable than a team of giant fighters.
3) Indian Warlords - For whatever reason, RNC took this bloc for granted. 65% of Indians voted en-bloc for Nurul. Once again over confident kills.
4) GE13 was an extremely polarized race, thus an increase in voter turnout is expected. Internal polling has shown Malay youth to vote UMNO in LP. However, the turnout for Malay youth was lower than average.
5) All in all, this is a numbers game; RNC team failed the counting.

Superior Organizing beats Superior Organization
It is no doubt that RNC had a far superior organization. The logistics team was fantastic; working in multiple teams of four, and rewarding capable teams more than others. The voters agreed RNC to be 'likeable' and 'easily accessible', but these factors weren't enough to carry him through.

As for Nurul's team, resources were scarce. Propitiously, the team was highly committed and mostly professionals. This enabled a far more detailed organizing. PACA planning was meticulous, with extraordinary results as the teams lasted till the PM called victory. Kudos!

Let this be a lesson to all political operatives that the grassroots work matters most. Failure to gasp this concept would lead to catastrophic failure. Onwards!




Interesting Facts:
(1) The ballot box found in the police car was a valid box, owing to confusion and misdirection.
(2) There were no helicopter drops!
(3) For the postal votes, Nurul Izzah won ~1%.

Forward!

D-Day went by, with passionate armies clashing with utmost fury across the Peninsula. DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang won the day at Gelang Patah, slaying the reinvigorated MB of Johor Ghani Othman by more than 10 k votes. The Chinese onslaught came, with full force, approximating 90% of turnout and votes in every single district in the nation. The Barisan National did not expect this surge, but they weathered through this formidable assault. Restless the leaders of BN are, only allowing selective reporting to come out from its HQ at Putra World Trade Centre. Titans from both sides were slain - that was to be expected. Words on the streets indicated a total loss for MCA, the Chinese component in the Barisan National. The De-Facto Leader of the Pakatan Rakyat, Anwar Ibrahim, proclaimed victory at first side. Operatives knew that it was too early a call, as the incumbent has been in power since Independence. The people gazed at the television, for the latest results; FB and online portals were refreshed every second by the younger population; operatives and troops stood by their champions, declaring premature victories. By 10, the streets were quiet, except for the competitive areas.

The 13th General Election results are within expectations. Pakatan Rakyat had garnered 7 seats more than in 2008 to 89 out of the 222 parliamentary seats (BN retaining 133). PR won the popular vote, 50.3% to BN 48.8%, or a majority of 300 k votes. The Oracle had expected a PR gain of about 7 seats (spot on), with DAP gaining securing an estimated 39 seats (final tally at 38 with obvious foul play on the ruling coalition), PAS and PKR suffering owing to the reduce support of Malay votes (The Malay votes did indeed swung back to BN, but with PAS taking the full brunt), and the gains by PR in Sarawak to be 6 (spot on) and Sabah 2 (won 3).

The outcome for the federal seats were quite precise, but the composition went slightly awry. In the final tally, PAS won 21, PKR 30, and DAP 38. The expectations was for PAS to have about 22 seats, and PKR about 26.

As for the PR states, despite the Hu-Ras, PR should clean sweep Penang (check), holds a comfortable lead in Kelantan (check), and a comfortable lead in Perak (X), a slim lead in Selangor (Won 2/3rd in Selangor with 44/56 seats = X), and lost Kedah (check). For the competitive states of Terengganu and N9, BN should be able to hold both (check).

Battle of the Titans
The expectations live with the unexpected losses and gains. PAS, the conservative faction within the Pakatan Rakyat suffered the most with the top leadership falling to win. Deputy President Mat Sabu (Pendang), Harun Din (Arau), Husam Musa (Putrajaya), and Dr Dzul (Kuala Selangor) lost the federal battles. Salahuddin Ayub (Pulai) lead the charge for PAS in Johor, but fell short. Even President Hadi Awang, lost the state seat, and couldn't muster an overwhelming victory in his stronghold of Marang. All in all the liberal faction who lead the charge lost. PAS is at a crossroad, as its electorate are uncomfortable with the current direction. If PAS decides to go towards the right (which they will), they might alienate the Chinese votes who had unexpected propelled PAS to having more seats than PKR in the state of Selangor!

On the side note, PAS youth chief Nasrudin Hassan, whom was rumored to be sent to the gallows emerge victoriously, slaying Higher Education Minister Saifuddin Abdullah in the Temerloh constituency.

For PKR, its generals benefitted from the strong Chinese current, particularly to Puteri Reformasi, VP1, and daughter of Anwar Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar. The Battle of Lembah Pantai, a mix seat of 55% Malay, 23% Chinese, and 20% Indians, was the most anticipated with ex-Federal Territory Minister Raja Nong Chik, playing Goliath had begun his campaign since 2010. With unlimited resources (federal budget and rumored billionaire, and a superior machinery, Nong Chik played the role of Godfather - paving roads, rebuilding community parks, centres, food outlets, giving housing, attending every single invited weddings and funerals - to the poorer district of Kampung Kerinchi and Taman Seri Sentosa. This can be a case study of superior organizing triumph over superior organization. With limited resources, and the support of the Bangsar folks, Nurul Izzah pulled an upset with victory of 1847 votes over a total of 60176. Human chains were formed around the polling centre when the Election Commission was delaying the announcement of the results late last night. FRU (Riot squads) officials were on standby, and ballot boxes were escorted by unauthorized government agents to the centre. The machinery held their ground, and denying Nong Chik his needed recount to steal the election. This could potentially be a RM100 mil lost for the ex-Minister. 

Noted observations:
1: PACA agents must stand their ground, understand the rules, and backed by ground troops.
2: The strategy of siphoning the Malay votes Kerinchi votes did not produce sufficient payoff.
3: GOTV works as the Bangsar folks came out overwhelmingly (~90%) (Expected to win with a turnout of 87%) Of course it does help that the base is overwhelming upper middle class.
4. The Indian warlords (North and South) kept their word!
5. Regardless of how superior the organization, without sufficient generals to lead, its excess is amount to waste. (3 Kingdoms - Yuan Shao vs Cao Cao; Sun Tze, "In war, numbers alone confer no advantage.")
6. Nong Chik played it right by upping the ante in his stronghold of pantai permai and kerinchi, but his men were too confident to execute the required orders.
7. Awaiting the numbers, the Malay turnout should be ~70% and the Chinese close to ~90%.

Puteri Reformasi lives to carry the WarFlag "Hope".

Lawan Tetap Lawan!

The results were devastating to Sec-Gen Saifuddin Nasution, who lost the Kulim Bandar Bahru seat by 1871 votes. Saifuddin was expected to sail through but was by Dr. M. waves of recapturing Kedah. This loss will change the internal dynamics within PKR.

Other PKR titans who lost include Datuk Chua Jui Meng (Segamat) to Dr. S. Subramaniam by 1204 votes, Datuk Paduka Tan Yee Kew (Tanjong Malim) to Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan (He's expected to take over the MCA Leadership), and Dr. M. Monutty (Bagan Serai) lost by 1040 votes.

Excluding gains, PKR lost 8 seats including Balik Pulau (Which is expected - Check).

The biggest winner is DAP. However they suffered the most from the fraudulent practices of MCA/BN. It was supposed to be a wipe off for MCA but last minute recount rescued Health Minister Liow Tiong Lai (Bentong) by a mere 300+ seats,  and Chua Tee Yong (Labis) by a mere ~300+ seats.

Other MCA warlords who lost include Kong Cho Ha (Lumut), and Chor Chee Heung (Alor Setar). MCA has lost the support of the Chinese community with >90% of Chinese voters rejecting the party. It turns out that Ong Tee Keat played his cards right by letting go of Pandan. He can now mount a successful challenge for the presidency.

Forward!
Let today be the day of grief for the Pakatan supporters and troops. Tomorrow will be a better day, with more work needed to be done. Grassroots ought to be reorganized. Logistics must be made a top priority. We need a leader like Howard Dean who came out with a 50-state plan to "fight at every state, city, and county".

Azmin Ali has to be given credit for mounting a successful offense in Selangor. More of this on following posts.

Dr. M. has shown his relevancy, and his political acuteness at this election. By successfully conquering the northern block, he had disprove the concept that PKR strength lies in the North. More so, by PM Najib not able to capture Selangor, UMNO will be continuous in turmoil over the next 5 years!

"Nothing is harder to see into than people's nature.
The sage looks at subtle phenomena
and listens to small voices.
This harmonizes the outside with the inside
and the inside with the outside."
(from the Records of the Loyal Lord of Warriors)

"Detach from emotions and desires; get rid of any fixations."

"The loss of any army is always caused by underestimating the enemy. Therefore gather information and watch the enemy carefully."

"Good generals select intelligent officers, thoughtful advisors, and brave subordinates. They oversee their troops like a fierce tiger with wings."

"You are harmed by decadence when judgment is based on private views, when forces are mobilized for personal reasons. These generals are treacherous and immoral."

Zhuge Liang Quotes, www.zhuge-liang.net

The Butterfly Effect

The ButterFly Effect is known to be events that are construe from a series of unintended consequences. The fight of Gelang Patah has set this Effect to the main political parties - DAP, MCA, PKR, and UMNO - derailing the plans of both the heroes and villain.

The first was the dethrone of PKR strongman, who whom DSAI took much effort to woo over in 2009, Datuk Chua Jui Meng. He was the appointed as the PKR Chief of Johor, and had been preparing the ground for the eventual run of Gelang Patah comes this GE. Alas, the effort came to naught when DSAI declared DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang as the candidate on March 16*.

A brief history of P162. Gelang Patah - MCA won the seat with a 8851 majority over the PKR candidate in the 2008 GE12. Though sizable, it was a reduce margins as MCA won with a majority of 31,666 votes in 2004. Today, the number of voters had swell by over 25% to 106,864 voters - 52% Chinese, 34% Malay, and 12% Indians. Hence the intense competition over this seat, as it's one of the three Chinese majority seats in Johor; the others being Bakri, and Kulai.

The consequence was an abrupt blackout from Datuk Chua. Regardless of DSAI intent of offering this Class A seat to its partner; DAP thought it had secured another round of victorious negotiation - gaining  one, losing none. Political analysts and the media already predicting a +1 victory for DAP, PR, and Lim Kit Siang, and dared MCA to field in their best candidate; preferably its Commander-in-Chief Dato Chua Soi Lek. This forced the MCA President back to the board room for a restrategizing session. The pressure was on, particularly from the UMNO warlords to have him contesting P162 - pitting the two most prominent Chinese leaders from rival factions for the Chinese voters to decide. Rumor came out that perhaps Deputy Education Minister Wee might be the scape goat to replace the President. Then something most unexpected occur! Johor MB Ghani Othman, whom was the Chief of the state since 1995, and had recently lost favor and not expected to be fielded in this GE13, suddenly found salvation to thrust his political career forward. A savvy politician who has a keen sense to opportunity; volunteered to face off with Lim Kit Siang. This outcome was a total surprise to practically the whole nation - making Gelang Patah the No 1 most anticipated battle in the nation. 

The unintended consequences to this revelation sent ripple effects to several prominent leaders. Ong Tee Keat, ex-MCA President, who still harbors to make a comeback, is expecting to be fielded in his stronghold of Pandan, Selangor by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. This is despite heavy objections by Dato Chua Soi Lek. But by trading off an MCA seat to UMNO, he got to fulfill his desire of securing his position in the party by removing OTK out from this GE!. Thus OTK becomes the 2nd victim, after Chua Jui Meng. The third victim was President Chua himself, as by backing out from the fight in Gelang Patah, has crippled himself and thus out from the current battle. It appears that Gelang Patah has finally settled the score for the old MCA rivals - 3 warlords but no victors. DAP seems to overplay their confidence and suffer a severe defeat in Johor due to the immense arrogance displayed publicly.

DAP might choose to double down on their strategy with the rumor of fielding Tony Pua to Kulai. The price of defeat may be too high for such a move as Tony has been a vivid and effective fundraiser to the party. Regardless, the biggest loser may just be the Chinese community in this nation. In this case, voting either for the incumbent or PR as akin to cutting of one leg or the other when contracting an acute infection.

This battle would bring either greater glory or an expedient retirement to the 72 year old veteran DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang. This will be his last GE owing to this age and health. Perhaps history will remember him kindly for this heroic undertaking.

As for Datuk Chua Jui Meng, he will be facing off with Human Resource Minister S. Subramaniam of MIC in Segamat. With just 3 weeks to polling, there might not be enough time to prepare sufficient field work for a successful operation. Even with an expected loss, Datuk Chua will give S. Subramaniam a run for his money. The voter demographics of P140 consists of 46% Chinese, 44% Malay and 10% Indians. Pakatan Rakyat's groundwork is still at its infant stage in Johor, and is expected to obtain between 15-20% of the Malay electorate - only an irritable punch. A 30% Chinese support is sufficient for BN to maintain the fort, with a probable loss of Bakri and Kluang.

The next political conundrum is Ong Tee Keat. Will he contest Pandan as an independent; thus earning the wrath of his former comrades and risk being sack from the party and dashing his dreams of making a comeback to the Presidency? Or will he sit out an wait for the next opportunity; severely weaken by not being an elected representative? Alternatively, but unlikely, crossing over to PR, most likely to the DAP. This would certainly be an irrational move as it brings only short term glory but long term banishment.

The consequence of this Gelang Patah feat of winning an extra seat for DAP turns out to be a bluff at the finale.











(Will be correcting my grammer later, and with updated progress)









*the date the news was leaked