A multitude of thoughts

Rather than writing about a specific issue, i figured out it would be best to just give my take on several issues. The first is this post which i came across in http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/not-winnie-the-pooh/, where i find the pic to be one of the most humorous.

I remembered some time ago when the western nations critized china and other asian countries on their handling of flu viruses such as SARS and other bird flus. The issue was the Asian countries playing down the numbers of the people that were infected and thus downplaying the risks of the flu.

However we could now see how the western countries handle the pandemic. Rather than containing the virus, Mexico was hoping for the virus to 'go away' and thus infecting tourists. This in turn enabled the tourists to spread the virus all over the world. Even till now there are denials about the origins of the virus and the seriusnous of this swine flu. The irony is that the wealthier schools and such are the ones getting infected. Apparently the flu spread in New York City owing to 3 students catching the flu during their spring break at Cancun. Even an Obama official working at the energy department contracted the flu. Luckily he was not on board Air Force One. Mexico had the guts to say that border control shouldn't be the solution to this problem because it would make the problems in Mexico worst. Since this flu will spread around the globe anyway, we should tackle the problem as it is. Pork suppliers think that this virus is unfair to them. Rather, swine flu should be called 'hybrid' flue because human can spread to other human beings. A researcher in Ohio had stated that the swine flu is very similar to those that infected the pig farms in Ohio a year ago. Apparently sometime last year, some pig farms in Ohio was tainted with a severe case of flu. He's practically hinting that since the U.S. is the largest pork exporter, the virus could have been exported to Mexico, and the virus mutated there. He specifically said he's not saying the above statement is true but rather a possibility.

The next item is this, http://thinkprogress.org/2009/05/01/hannity-chicken/#, where Hannity had said that water boarding is not torture and he agreed to be waterboarded for charity. Keith Olbermann had promised to donate $1000 for every second Hannity is being waterboarded. However, Hannity is currently evading this promise. I do hope that he will show how manly he is by keeping his words for a good cause. Kudos to Olbermann for repeatedly reminding Hannity of his promise.

I'm a huge fan of Lord of the Rings Triology. In fact, fantasy books are one of my favourite type of fiction. It's amazing to me that children's books in the 60s till the 80s are dark and filled with death. It's so different than now where children's books are so happy such as Harry Potter. I was hoping that J.R. Rowling would make the 7th series to be dark and filled with adventure. So, i was extremely dissappointed. Anyway, a fan made a new trailer for LOTR and it's really well done. Here is the link for it. It's called The Hunt for Gollum.

Finally i would say that the Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls game was one of the best ever. I can't believe that they got till game 7. I was rooting for the Bulls to win. Celtics won at the end with a 10 point lead. The game was becoming really close at last quarter when the Bulls became organized once more, and was 6 points behind the Celtics but alas that was not enough. It's been a long time since i saw such a good game. Looks like after almost a decade, Chicago Bulls might be coming back with a bang without Michael Jordon.

Mark Penn- Taking the fall for Hillary

There was a lot of opposition against Mark Penn- Hillary's campaign manager during the primaries where he was solely blamed for the failed campaign. I was a young staff for Hillary throughout her whole primary campaign and this is my take on the issue. Since the primaries had been over for almost a year and Obama is already our 44th President, political junkies like me can analyze and produce clear thoughts without worrying about being flamed by either sides. I was writing this in response to the blog post on mydd.com, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/5/3/214538/1770#commenttop.

1. Mark Penn - If you actually take the time to read the leak notes from Hillary's campaign, you should realized that Hillary did not take much of Mark Penn's advice especially concerning negative advertisements. Even the 3 am ad was authorized by Bill and not Hillary. Long before the Iowa caucus, Penn actually prepared a series of strategies to deal with Obama and Edwards but they were not realized due to Hillary's objections. Finally it was expected that Obama would win the Iowa caucus as shown in his polling. Actually, since Hillary only started organizing in Iowa in mid 07, due to natural restraint- she can't announce for her bid before that date as she ran for reelection in 06, in contrast to Edwards who basically 'live' in Iowa since 04 and Obama since 06. One of Penn's failure was to count on the AA votes. That's the Indiana and N.C. strategy and a failed one. Finally Mark Penn is famous for 2 things - negative campaigning and polling- none of which Hillary took full opportunity.

2. Delegates - Another strategic error committed by Hillary's campaign is by not focusing on district's which would produce the most delegates. Hillary had the most talented people in this field but yet she decided to pursue a general election strategy and this, to me, is the biggest blunder. However, since polling has shown her to have the biggest support pre-vote, she cannot really be faulted for that mistake. No one in the right mind would actually be concern about the primaries. When Bill ran for president, he too forgo the caucus strategy and won. Though times have changed during Bill Clinton's Presidency where the AA community were more empowered in the delegate count. All in all, the math is against Hillary when the whole AA community decided to back Obama.

3) Pattis Solis Doyle - She was the campaign chair in Iowa, got fired, and then worked for the Obama's campaign. She was also Hillary's best friend and advisor, and was one of the top latino woman who held immense influence and contacts. I blamed her for the huge loss in Iowa and the sole reason why Hillary lost. These are the errors that she had 'purposely' committed.
I) Internal polling showed Hillary to be running 3rd in Iowa and yet she convinced Hillary to go all out in that state. She was the campaign manager but yet the organization in Iowa was the most disorganized ever. This is evident during a press conference where Hillary and Bill overheard the press speaking among themselves highlighting the efficiently of the Edwards/Obama campaign and the messiness of Hillary's. When Hillary heard about this she screamed at her strategists but yet Pattis could not come up with a plan.
II) When Hillary decided to go all out in Iowa, the plan was to spent about $60 million and have at least $20 million as reserved for the later stages. Pattis oversaw this funds and when Iowa ended, she had spent the $20 million in reserved, leaving Hillary with no money. This got her fired and she left bitterly because Mark Penn wasn't fired alongside with her. It's obvious as she was the one committing those mistakes. This mistake is crucial because not only does Hillary not have enough money to Super Tuesday, but totally no money after that.
III) She decided then to help Obama as she was from Chicago and was an old friend of Axerod. The thing which she could offer is contacts and the Obama campaign benefited hugely from those contacts.

4) Obama's efficiently - I have to say the Obama's campaign is the most disciplined ever with practically ZERO leaks. Even Reagan had that flaw. Credit should really be given to Obama. It went worst for Hillary when Obama was bringing in more cash and had more young volunteers than Hillary. With tens of thousands of new young caucus goers, the old ones would not be able to compete and thus enabled Obama to dominate the caucuses. There is nothing that Hillary can do in the caucus states after Iowa. That is the depth of Sollis error.

5) The AA strategy - Due to Hillary's decision of not playing hardball and thus gave Obama a free pass on the AA votes. AA voted for Obama ranging from 90-10 to 97-3. In Indiana and North Carolina it's at least 93-7. All Hillary needed was 20% of the AA vote but yet she couldn't even break 10%. She ran a very positive message in Indiana and NC specifically targeting the AA women but that failed miserably. She did not take any advantage of the 'God damn America' crisis. While all these are going, black churches were preaching for its members to vote for Obama; the AA that did not comply with that would be considered a traitor to his race and family. You can add that up to various intimidation tactics (racism is very ironic and works both ways) that scared the load out of poor old voters and the like. This was dominant especially in the south and midwest.

6) John Edward's campaign - John Edward made the biggest flaw when he decided to team up with Obama to blast Hillary. With this going on, the buzz was not with Edwards but rather a black candidate against a Clinton. The media love conflict thus that was the perfect set up. Edward's once asked Joe Trippe, his campaign manager, whether he had to burn his HQ to create some buzz. This showed how much the media has been ignoring him. If he had acknowledged from the start the the media had room for only 2 person rather than 3, he could have try to bring Obama out so that he could be the 2nd person to challenge the Clinton. This actually helped Obama solidified his position and message and the ultimate loser was Edwards.

7)The Media - Nothing much to say about this other than the obvious where the media was with Obama and against Hillary. Their greatest spin were to take Bill's 'fairy-tale' and Hillary's 'LBJ' speeches out of context and twisted them into anti-AA propaganda.

8) Luck- The Iraq War was the primary issue during the first half of the year. Mitt Romney's 'two Guantanamo Bay' is the proved of that. Only when the economy deteriorate in mid-August- September where the economy became the top issue. Notice how the Iraq War was a no issue during the general election. Hillary would have won flat out and her general election strategy would have been perfect if Lehman were to go down in late 07 rather than late 08. This is truly divine intervention.

For statistics purposes, before March 08, Obama made twice as many appearances than Clinton. After that, the Clintons made 4 times more appearances than Obama. This itself says a lot about the momentums of the campaigns. As for me, i think caucuses are anti-democratic for Presidential primaries. Hillary had almost a million more votes than Obama in the end, though she surrenders elegantly. Florida and Michigan was indeed a mess due to them being Hillary's states. Finally Universal Healthcare practically became a non-issue for liberals during the primaries. I haven't seen that much opposition to Universal Coverage ever and was totally a surprised to me. For proof, just browse google. No wonder our population is against socialize medicine. Machiavelli said it best with the following quote:

"One can make this generalization about men: they are ungrateful, fickle, liars, and deceivers...friendship which is bought with money and not with greatness and nobility of mind is paid for, but it does not last and it yields nothing."

CDC - Nightlife and Parties

This year's convention is more unique than the past as there are a lot more young democrats - high schoolers and college kids. I believe there should be around 800 first timers who registered with the California Young Democrats who came. With this, we see some of the caucuses being dominated by younglings and they voted as a bloc to overthrow the incumbents. At times i do pity the incumbents as some of them really did work hard. However, it is a fresh start for many of the caucuses with new leadership that inspires young people to be involve in politics.

As usual after 10pm, various politicians will hold separate parties at the convention. Last year the CYD had a miniscule room to hold the party and we ran out of alcohol in less than an hour. This year is totally different. I guess it's because everyone wants to be at his good side. I do hope that he can bring progressive reform to our party. He might be 77, but he's still strong and had a commanding aura around him.

Next is the apple pie and ice cream party. I love the atmosphere in that room. There is a band playing jazz music, with a cozy environment. There is no alcohol, only tea and coffee. The crust of the apple pie is superb. It's definitely one of the best apple pie i've tasted. I went for 3 full servings and this is after i had my humongous plate of baby back ribs.

The CTA's party had a familiar feel to it. It's no different than the year before - the room is 'sunny' and bright- and cookies and chocolates everywhere. Somehow by representing the CFA, the CTA has a dislike for people like me. I think this is due to the Prop 1A where the CTA was for it while most of the grassroots were against it. I think many felt betrayed that the CTA chose to endorse Prop 1A. There were a few good souls out there who actually researched AB656 and then came back to me and signed the petition. I would like to thank them for that. All in all, Gov. Arnold's divide and conquer seems to be working with Prop 1A.

As for Sat night's party, Majority leader Toricco had a salsa/karaoke party. There's also a rootbear float party and several others. I managed to get a pass on the 'block' party hosted by the high school democrats and Mayor Gavin Newsom. With that i did not attend any of the parties at the convention center and chose to go to the 'Block' party as well as one hosted by the LGBT group in a posh restaurant nearby. This party was very elegant. There were 3 types of sushis, satays, other good food as well as the fancy hard liquors. This is in contrast to only beers and wines at the convention.

In conclusion, i told many of the younglings that by having the trips fully paid while attending the various interest group sponsored parties, they are all now part of the system in which they voted to change. Furthermore, everyone did indeed has a fantastic time. Maybe it's more fun being the campaign manager than a politician as you can be the ones enjoying the parties rather than being the host.

The California Democratic Convention - AB656

I was at the California Democratic Convention at Sacramento during the past weekend. My trip was fully sponsored by the California Faculty Association. Needless to say, i had a really good time there. Part of my responsibility at the convention is to raise awareness on AB656. A colleague helped me to remember the number of the bill by keeping in my mind this concept of subtracting 10 from 666.

AB656 is sponsored by Majority Leader Toricco. The bill would tax oil extraction and the proceeds would go to higher education - UC, CSU, and Community Colleges. California is the only state in the Union that does not have an oil severance tax. The higher education system in Texas is fully paid by this tax alone and for more than a century. For the first time since the creation of our higher education system, 10,000 eligible students are being turned away from the CSU system owing to lack of fundings. It is rumured that those with financial needs are hit the hardest. Since 2003, higher education funds has been cut by almost a billion annually. This Bill would bring in about $1.5bil to the system per year. Our objective is to bring awareness of the bill to the delegates and the activisists so that the Bill would be adopted as a platform at this year's convention. The party will only accept 10 resolutions to debate and adopt. Our bill was no.10. We were prepared to collect 300 additional signatures from the delegates in order to force a vote if this Bill did not pass the resolution committee. Luckily, that was not needed. All in all, approximately 450 signatures were collected and I, myself, collected 91. I was rewarded with a huge and delicious plate of baby back ribs.

I tried to get Lt. Gov. John Garamendi to sign the petition but he informed me that he hasn't signed one in about 33 years. I even tried to get Mark Leno to sign but i've forgotten what his replied was. Looks like the only star which signed my peition was Alissa Ko, the CYD chair. Evan Low, the vice-mayor of Campbell, also signed the petition, though it was not mine. I can conclude that the young aspiring politicians have more guts than the established 'old' ones. Maybe the next generation of politicians will actually be less political calculative and have the determination to do the right thing. However, this could just be a recurring pattern but i have faith in my generation.

P.S. Due to my CPU being kaput, i'll post pictures of the convention later.

Amazon and friends

My favourite online retailer, amazon.com, has decided to play homophobic on easter weekend. It is reported in theconsumerist.com, that amazon removed many gay and lesbian books from the site-wide rankings and search results. The only books left are those about 'curing gays' and so on. I'm deeply surprised and offended that Amazon would even consider going down this censorship path and waging war against the gays. I bought all my textbooks, games and many other gadgets from amazon. I even have a Amazon prime account and just bought 2 books last week. I do hope that this problem will be ractify as soon as possible with sincere apology and maybe a generous donation or somesort to equility organizations.  Else, i just have to start advocating my friends to stop shopping on Amazon. Also, i would need to find alternative sites to shop for books.

This brings me to my next point - censorship. In the past, corporations and the government could unload the bad news on Friday afternoons to avoid scrutinies from the press. This practice then expanded to experimental corporate actions, negative attacks, and many other abnormalties. With the Internet, these actions are no more effective. People has made it a habit to read their favourite blog or news daily. Information now is not solely reliant on the media anymore as there are just too many people with freetime doing their own investigative journalism. Any attempt of censorship will not get a freepass as the people will be aware. For this reason, Hillary Clinton could not get away with setting up a proxy individual to ask her questions during her campaign trail. China also did not get away with the little girl's voice being dubbed during the opening ceremony of the Olympics. In the past, these actions are acceptable but we are living in the 21st century. Times have changed and corporations and the government should take note of this.  

This is Amazon's response to the censorship:

"In consideration of our entire customer base, we exclude "adult" material from appearing in some searches and best seller lists. Since these lists are generated using sales ranks, adult materials must also be excluded from that feature."

Looks like it's no system or software failure but rather intentional on Amazon's part. Those responsible for implementing this change should clearly be fired. I hope Amazon will give an adequate response on Monday. 

Arabian Nights

One of my interests is modern architecture and this is perhaps one of the main reasons why i love living in the cities. Therefore i've always wanted to visit Dubai as i've heard news and stories about how marvelous that city is and that it is any architect's dream to visit Dubai. More importantly, Dubai is a symbol to the Islamic world as it shows that there can be modernization within the religion and that people of all backgrounds, sexual orientation and so forth can express themselves openly and live harmonous without fear of being harassed by authorities. The citizens are given free education and healthcare by the Government. This free education program extends all the way to getting PHDs, and that students are being sponsored to study abroad to U.S. and Europe. I've always believe that education is the key to sustain democracy. For this reason itself, our goal in spreading democracy to the Middle East failed as the majority of the population in Afghanistan and Iraq are uneducated. Dubai gives these people hope and aspiration as Muslim youths know that they can have a better life in Dubai. This symbolic gesture will also give the Muslim population dreams and ambitions rather than despair and violence.

I came across this article,http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/the-dark-side-of-dubai-1664368.html , which tells a dark tale about the current situation in Dubai. Just like the rest of the world, Dubai is no doubt hit hard by the global financial crisis. Constructions have stopped as they are not enough investors to finance the boom. Besides that, the UAE had just approved a loan to bailout Dubai. The sewage system has exceeded its capacity and the palm islands are sinking slowly. With ample bad news, the Government has chosen to censor the press. Bloggers and foreign correspondents are not allowed to write any negatitive news about Dubai with the threat of imprisonment or deportation.

Then there is the issue of slave labor. It's obvious that many of the labourers come from India and Bangladesh and the maids from the Phillipines. Maids from the Phillipines are known to be better trained and more responsible than those from other 3rd world countries. Bangladeshi workers are also known to be more hardworking and ethically responsible in contrast to the poorer 3rd world nations. They have obviously been abuse and mistreated but that is common everywhere in the world. The thing that surprises me is that their embassies are not willing to help them out. These workers are not getting proper food and sanitation and this is obviously cruel. I would have thought that their own countries will be ensuring that their workers are getting the deserving salaries and working conditions. It's in their interest to do so as these workers will be sending home money and this labor export is good business. The biggest income for Mexico is the dollars flowing in from the U.S. by their people. 

Finally, there is no bankrupy law in Dubai. This is definitely a surprise to me. I would expect that a city which prizes itself as the new global financial capitol of the world will have proper bankrupcy laws. If you ended up owing money and unable to pay, you go to jail. That's a draconian law as i'm certain that only workers will be affected by this and not corporations. Free healthcare is only provided for its citizens and not the foreign workers that comprises 90% of the population.  This makes opening up a small business in Dubai will be of high risk as failure means going to jail. This too explains why there are a big influx of foreigners who would drive their cars to the airport and fly home. With prices of houses and apartments going down, i hope that i would be able to afford a holiday villa at Dubai sometime in the future.  Hopefully by then, the laws will be properly set up to accommodate the modern world. 

Twisting facts

When Hillary Clinton was on her flight to Mexico City, she gave an interview to the press stating that 90% of guns used to commit crimes in Mexico originated from the U.S. In response, a journalist from Fox News wrote an article, (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/e...r-claimed/), indicating that what Hillary said was untrue and that the government was twisting facts. Rather than tackling the research headon, the journalist basically listed down the conclusion of the research that came to the 90% conclusion at the start of the article, followed by attacking the messenger, in this case it's the research, then added it's own facts with quotes from officers of various agencies, and finally justifying the new found facts by quoting the NRA. It's interesting to see journalists employing such tactics to sway public opinion. I've known Fox News to be very conservative throughout the Bush years and became very independant when reporting the 08 primaries and now back to their trueself. Sadly, many people especially gun loving citizens and conservatives will not see how Fox misinterpreted the information.

Now lets examined some of the cherry picking that Fox News did. 

"In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced -- and of those, 90 percent -- 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover -- were found to have come from the U.S."

In the above statement, the reporter implied and used his own math to say that since almost 6,000 guns were untraceble, they must had came from outside the U.S.  With this, he concluded that only 17% of guns come from the U.S.  He continued justifying his numbers by saying the liberal media and the government is spreading false information. I suggest the reporter to take stats classes and understand sampling and the importance of RANDOM sampling.

"In a remarkable claim, Auturo Sarukhan, the Mexican ambassador to the U.S., said Mexico seizes 2,000 guns a day from the United States -- 730,000 a year."

Noticed in the quote above the reporter added the word 'remarkable'. Clearly, he is indicating that both governments are lying with the intend to take guns away from U.S. citizens. He too spewed out random numbers using mystical calculations to highlight the 2,000 guns seized a day as false. I actually would have thought that of all people, journalists should know that correlation is causation. Fox should send him back to school for some retraining. No wonder they ratings are dropping. People have become more educated and for the most part can see through their lies. Fox should really do a study to determine whether there is a correlation between education and watching Fox news. 

Finally, let me just summarize how a typical research is being done.

1. RANDOMLY choose a set of guns. Notice the importance of the randomness. It is also impossible to send all guns that's why we randomly pick a selected no of guns and in this case is 11k. It's also important to be random so that the researcher's bias will not affect the outcome. The study here is how many of these guns originated from the US.
2.It's discovered that roughly 6k can be identified. As for the other 6 k, it's defective in one way or another that they are unidentifiable. It's unidentifiable. This means you cannot tell where it is from due to the samples being contaminated at the point of confiscation. This is important as the outcome could be 50% of guns seize by the mexico police during drug raids are damaged/destroyed while in combat/ melted halfway etc. This is where correlation is not causation. This is also the phase where the reporter/Fox purposely or uneducatedly added in their 'opinions' with 'facts' from other experts who were not doing this research. If these 6 k guns can be identified then they would have been included. Don't get confuse.
3. Out of the other roughly 6k that can be identified through serial numbers etc, 90% originated from the US and the remaining 10% from the rest of the world. There should not be any controversy here. Notice that Fox just made this outcome irrelevance where in fact it should be the most important of the findings.
4. Therefore the conclusion suggested that 90% of guns seized in Mexico through drug raids come from the U.S. 
5. This is not liberal bias at all. last i know, Mexico is a conservative state and their ambassador said in the article that almost 2k guns originating from the US are confiscated daily.

I saw  many responses to the article on conservative blogs highlighting liberal media bias. Clearly many do not know how researches produce statistics. I hope these people understand that these researches are not ideological. If you don't believe it, then facts can't sway you opinion as it's already fix.