There was a lot of opposition against Mark Penn- Hillary's campaign manager during the primaries where he was solely blamed for the failed campaign. I was a young staff for Hillary throughout her whole primary campaign and this is my take on the issue. Since the primaries had been over for almost a year and Obama is already our 44th President, political junkies like me can analyze and produce clear thoughts without worrying about being flamed by either sides. I was writing this in response to the blog post on mydd.com, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/5/3/214538/1770#commenttop.
1. Mark Penn - If you actually take the time to read the leak notes from Hillary's campaign, you should realized that Hillary did not take much of Mark Penn's advice especially concerning negative advertisements. Even the 3 am ad was authorized by Bill and not Hillary. Long before the Iowa caucus, Penn actually prepared a series of strategies to deal with Obama and Edwards but they were not realized due to Hillary's objections. Finally it was expected that Obama would win the Iowa caucus as shown in his polling. Actually, since Hillary only started organizing in Iowa in mid 07, due to natural restraint- she can't announce for her bid before that date as she ran for reelection in 06, in contrast to Edwards who basically 'live' in Iowa since 04 and Obama since 06. One of Penn's failure was to count on the AA votes. That's the Indiana and N.C. strategy and a failed one. Finally Mark Penn is famous for 2 things - negative campaigning and polling- none of which Hillary took full opportunity.
2. Delegates - Another strategic error committed by Hillary's campaign is by not focusing on district's which would produce the most delegates. Hillary had the most talented people in this field but yet she decided to pursue a general election strategy and this, to me, is the biggest blunder. However, since polling has shown her to have the biggest support pre-vote, she cannot really be faulted for that mistake. No one in the right mind would actually be concern about the primaries. When Bill ran for president, he too forgo the caucus strategy and won. Though times have changed during Bill Clinton's Presidency where the AA community were more empowered in the delegate count. All in all, the math is against Hillary when the whole AA community decided to back Obama.
3) Pattis Solis Doyle - She was the campaign chair in Iowa, got fired, and then worked for the Obama's campaign. She was also Hillary's best friend and advisor, and was one of the top latino woman who held immense influence and contacts. I blamed her for the huge loss in Iowa and the sole reason why Hillary lost. These are the errors that she had 'purposely' committed.
I) Internal polling showed Hillary to be running 3rd in Iowa and yet she convinced Hillary to go all out in that state. She was the campaign manager but yet the organization in Iowa was the most disorganized ever. This is evident during a press conference where Hillary and Bill overheard the press speaking among themselves highlighting the efficiently of the Edwards/Obama campaign and the messiness of Hillary's. When Hillary heard about this she screamed at her strategists but yet Pattis could not come up with a plan.
II) When Hillary decided to go all out in Iowa, the plan was to spent about $60 million and have at least $20 million as reserved for the later stages. Pattis oversaw this funds and when Iowa ended, she had spent the $20 million in reserved, leaving Hillary with no money. This got her fired and she left bitterly because Mark Penn wasn't fired alongside with her. It's obvious as she was the one committing those mistakes. This mistake is crucial because not only does Hillary not have enough money to Super Tuesday, but totally no money after that.
III) She decided then to help Obama as she was from Chicago and was an old friend of Axerod. The thing which she could offer is contacts and the Obama campaign benefited hugely from those contacts.
4) Obama's efficiently - I have to say the Obama's campaign is the most disciplined ever with practically ZERO leaks. Even Reagan had that flaw. Credit should really be given to Obama. It went worst for Hillary when Obama was bringing in more cash and had more young volunteers than Hillary. With tens of thousands of new young caucus goers, the old ones would not be able to compete and thus enabled Obama to dominate the caucuses. There is nothing that Hillary can do in the caucus states after Iowa. That is the depth of Sollis error.
5) The AA strategy - Due to Hillary's decision of not playing hardball and thus gave Obama a free pass on the AA votes. AA voted for Obama ranging from 90-10 to 97-3. In Indiana and North Carolina it's at least 93-7. All Hillary needed was 20% of the AA vote but yet she couldn't even break 10%. She ran a very positive message in Indiana and NC specifically targeting the AA women but that failed miserably. She did not take any advantage of the 'God damn America' crisis. While all these are going, black churches were preaching for its members to vote for Obama; the AA that did not comply with that would be considered a traitor to his race and family. You can add that up to various intimidation tactics (racism is very ironic and works both ways) that scared the load out of poor old voters and the like. This was dominant especially in the south and midwest.
6) John Edward's campaign - John Edward made the biggest flaw when he decided to team up with Obama to blast Hillary. With this going on, the buzz was not with Edwards but rather a black candidate against a Clinton. The media love conflict thus that was the perfect set up. Edward's once asked Joe Trippe, his campaign manager, whether he had to burn his HQ to create some buzz. This showed how much the media has been ignoring him. If he had acknowledged from the start the the media had room for only 2 person rather than 3, he could have try to bring Obama out so that he could be the 2nd person to challenge the Clinton. This actually helped Obama solidified his position and message and the ultimate loser was Edwards.
7)The Media - Nothing much to say about this other than the obvious where the media was with Obama and against Hillary. Their greatest spin were to take Bill's 'fairy-tale' and Hillary's 'LBJ' speeches out of context and twisted them into anti-AA propaganda.
8) Luck- The Iraq War was the primary issue during the first half of the year. Mitt Romney's 'two Guantanamo Bay' is the proved of that. Only when the economy deteriorate in mid-August- September where the economy became the top issue. Notice how the Iraq War was a no issue during the general election. Hillary would have won flat out and her general election strategy would have been perfect if Lehman were to go down in late 07 rather than late 08. This is truly divine intervention.
For statistics purposes, before March 08, Obama made twice as many appearances than Clinton. After that, the Clintons made 4 times more appearances than Obama. This itself says a lot about the momentums of the campaigns. As for me, i think caucuses are anti-democratic for Presidential primaries. Hillary had almost a million more votes than Obama in the end, though she surrenders elegantly. Florida and Michigan was indeed a mess due to them being Hillary's states. Finally Universal Healthcare practically became a non-issue for liberals during the primaries. I haven't seen that much opposition to Universal Coverage ever and was totally a surprised to me. For proof, just browse google. No wonder our population is against socialize medicine. Machiavelli said it best with the following quote:
"One can make this generalization about men: they are ungrateful, fickle, liars, and deceivers...friendship which is bought with money and not with greatness and nobility of mind is paid for, but it does not last and it yields nothing."
