GE13 - Heroes and Villians

The 13th General Election will be a monumental election to be recorded in the annals of Malaysia history as generals in both the Barisan National (BN) and the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) will meet head on - the price of defeat is to retire from politics. Several top leaders, albeit more to come, have announced their intention of moving out from their strongholds to fight decisive battles - Lim Kit Siang, Liew Chin Tong, Fong Po Kuan (TBC), and Kulasegaran (TBC) from the DAP; Dato Mansor Othman, Rafiza Ramli, Datuk Chua Jui Meng (TBC), and Datuk Tan Kee Kwong from PKR; Salahuddin Ayub and Datuk Seri Mohd Nizar from PAS; and from BN, MCA old- Donald Lim, Ng Yen Yen, and Ong Ka Chuan; Devamany from the MIC; Teng Chang Yeow, and Chia Kwang Chye; and as for UMNO Dato Zainal Abidin Osman*, Raja Nong Chik and many others.

Incumbents Generalissimo - Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar, Fuziah Salleh, Ong Tee Keat, Chor Chee Heung, Subramaniam, Kong Cho Ha*, Dato Seri Nazri*, and Datuk Seri Hishammudin* - these dignified individuals will be facing tempestuous battles profuse with malign sentiments.

With 79 seats out of 222 (166 in the Peninsula, 56 from Sabah and Sarawak), DS Anwar Ibrahim will need at least another 40 seats to form the next federal government. An uphill but possible task, DSAI believes that PR can win up to 12 seats in Johor, 8 in Sarawak, 12 in Sabah, while capturing another 8 more seats from PR leaning states in the North. Or in the words of Tian Chua, PKR senior VP and head of the Heavenly faction, "10 from Johor, 10 from Sabah, and 10 from Sarawak". Such is the optimism of our top leadership - endless possibilities and victory inevitable!

Arithmetic
In the 2008  elections, the PR had 30% Malay support, 75% Chinese support, and 70% Indian support. If we maintain this ratio, the results will be status quo of retaining 5 states and denying BN the 2/3rd majority - a victory for PR as it realizes a 2-party system in Malaysia. To win the federal government, PR would need a minimum of 80% Chinese support, at least 60% Indian support and 40% Malay support. Pakatan Rakyat leaders are confident to meet this desired numbers. Any deviation from this figures would bring an element of surprise and changes to the leadership structure of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

Thus the deviation is the most probable.

Recent survey, which I concur, has shown that Pakatan Rakyat has max the support of the Chinese community at 82%. In urban areas such as the Klang Valley, the support could surpass 90% and semi-rural areas/ old-towns the support at about 65%. As for Johor, I expect our Chinese support to be 2/3, at 67%.

As for the Indian support, it can be no doubt that PR is losing this group of electorate, possibly winning only 40% of the community - a combination of educated and urban votes with some rural votes. The loss is attributed to the lack of fieldwork - logistical as our leaders refuse to invest in the necessary infrastructure. The reasons could be owing to the lack of funding, and sufficient top Indian leaders in the coalition. Thus I expect PR to get 40% and BN 60%.

The Malay electorate will be the deciding factor into the formation of the next Federal Government. At a base line of 30% support to PR, the electorate has increase by about 2-4% national; thus being the absolute kingmakers in most seats. This is particularly significant to Selangor where an erosion of Malay support might cause PR to lose this prized state. A loss of Selangor would mean a consolidation of powers to the PM DS Najib Razak - stability to UMNO and deep vulnerability to the survival of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

Sadly, I'm expecting the erosion of the Malay support to between 22% - 25%. This is attributed to the 3 Rs - Race, Religion, and Royalty - a potent combination that has never fail to rally any conservative base in the world. The counter to this stratagem is superior fieldwork, but this has yet to be done by the PR leaders as like I've said before - boring and requires hardwork.

Consequences
If indeed the Pakatan Rakyat receives 82% of Chinese support, 40% of Indian support and 22-25% of Malay support, the dynamics of the PR coalition would undergo severe changes. This would be an abrogation of the PR leadership, especially to the leaders in PKR and PAS. The hold on the state of Selangor could be as low as 3-seats, an uncomfortable margin to the current 36-20. In terms of parliamentary seats, DAP would emerge as the victor with close to or about 40 seats, an increment of at least 10, while PAS and PKR will lose 3-5 seats each on aggregate.

The relationship between the parties, and the leadership structure would undergo shocking political vicissitudes. This new relationship shall be thoroughly discuss in subsequent posts as it involves leadership tussle in winning states particularly the prized Selangor.

But, PR can find comfort that BN is being denied their 2/3rd majority twice in a row and will have to get use to the new political reality. The winner will be ordinary Malaysians, and the biggest loser will be the Barisan National coalition, with its component parties pulverized!

What will happen to UMNO except for another five years of internal instability?



Next: Battle of the Titans

* indicates possibilities

Updates: It seems that PKR is not going to give the Home Minister Hishammudin a fight for his political career.