The Butterfly Effect

The ButterFly Effect is known to be events that are construe from a series of unintended consequences. The fight of Gelang Patah has set this Effect to the main political parties - DAP, MCA, PKR, and UMNO - derailing the plans of both the heroes and villain.

The first was the dethrone of PKR strongman, who whom DSAI took much effort to woo over in 2009, Datuk Chua Jui Meng. He was the appointed as the PKR Chief of Johor, and had been preparing the ground for the eventual run of Gelang Patah comes this GE. Alas, the effort came to naught when DSAI declared DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang as the candidate on March 16*.

A brief history of P162. Gelang Patah - MCA won the seat with a 8851 majority over the PKR candidate in the 2008 GE12. Though sizable, it was a reduce margins as MCA won with a majority of 31,666 votes in 2004. Today, the number of voters had swell by over 25% to 106,864 voters - 52% Chinese, 34% Malay, and 12% Indians. Hence the intense competition over this seat, as it's one of the three Chinese majority seats in Johor; the others being Bakri, and Kulai.

The consequence was an abrupt blackout from Datuk Chua. Regardless of DSAI intent of offering this Class A seat to its partner; DAP thought it had secured another round of victorious negotiation - gaining  one, losing none. Political analysts and the media already predicting a +1 victory for DAP, PR, and Lim Kit Siang, and dared MCA to field in their best candidate; preferably its Commander-in-Chief Dato Chua Soi Lek. This forced the MCA President back to the board room for a restrategizing session. The pressure was on, particularly from the UMNO warlords to have him contesting P162 - pitting the two most prominent Chinese leaders from rival factions for the Chinese voters to decide. Rumor came out that perhaps Deputy Education Minister Wee might be the scape goat to replace the President. Then something most unexpected occur! Johor MB Ghani Othman, whom was the Chief of the state since 1995, and had recently lost favor and not expected to be fielded in this GE13, suddenly found salvation to thrust his political career forward. A savvy politician who has a keen sense to opportunity; volunteered to face off with Lim Kit Siang. This outcome was a total surprise to practically the whole nation - making Gelang Patah the No 1 most anticipated battle in the nation. 

The unintended consequences to this revelation sent ripple effects to several prominent leaders. Ong Tee Keat, ex-MCA President, who still harbors to make a comeback, is expecting to be fielded in his stronghold of Pandan, Selangor by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. This is despite heavy objections by Dato Chua Soi Lek. But by trading off an MCA seat to UMNO, he got to fulfill his desire of securing his position in the party by removing OTK out from this GE!. Thus OTK becomes the 2nd victim, after Chua Jui Meng. The third victim was President Chua himself, as by backing out from the fight in Gelang Patah, has crippled himself and thus out from the current battle. It appears that Gelang Patah has finally settled the score for the old MCA rivals - 3 warlords but no victors. DAP seems to overplay their confidence and suffer a severe defeat in Johor due to the immense arrogance displayed publicly.

DAP might choose to double down on their strategy with the rumor of fielding Tony Pua to Kulai. The price of defeat may be too high for such a move as Tony has been a vivid and effective fundraiser to the party. Regardless, the biggest loser may just be the Chinese community in this nation. In this case, voting either for the incumbent or PR as akin to cutting of one leg or the other when contracting an acute infection.

This battle would bring either greater glory or an expedient retirement to the 72 year old veteran DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang. This will be his last GE owing to this age and health. Perhaps history will remember him kindly for this heroic undertaking.

As for Datuk Chua Jui Meng, he will be facing off with Human Resource Minister S. Subramaniam of MIC in Segamat. With just 3 weeks to polling, there might not be enough time to prepare sufficient field work for a successful operation. Even with an expected loss, Datuk Chua will give S. Subramaniam a run for his money. The voter demographics of P140 consists of 46% Chinese, 44% Malay and 10% Indians. Pakatan Rakyat's groundwork is still at its infant stage in Johor, and is expected to obtain between 15-20% of the Malay electorate - only an irritable punch. A 30% Chinese support is sufficient for BN to maintain the fort, with a probable loss of Bakri and Kluang.

The next political conundrum is Ong Tee Keat. Will he contest Pandan as an independent; thus earning the wrath of his former comrades and risk being sack from the party and dashing his dreams of making a comeback to the Presidency? Or will he sit out an wait for the next opportunity; severely weaken by not being an elected representative? Alternatively, but unlikely, crossing over to PR, most likely to the DAP. This would certainly be an irrational move as it brings only short term glory but long term banishment.

The consequence of this Gelang Patah feat of winning an extra seat for DAP turns out to be a bluff at the finale.











(Will be correcting my grammer later, and with updated progress)









*the date the news was leaked