Jolted - The state of political reality

Laugh, my friends, and dance and sing!
Or weep and wail with sorrow.
What California is today,
The rest will be tomorrow.
 -Maroon Bulldog

The call for unity is loud, after a tedious and competitive general election. To some leaders - Saifuddin Nasution, Mat Sabu, Ali Rustam, Kong Cho Ha, Raja Nong Chik - the results were brutal. A victorious display became naught owing to a concoction of over-confidence and arrogance. A speedy retirement for the soon to be ex-MCA sec gen, and the ex-MB of Malacca; and for Saifuddin Nasution, Mat Sabu and Raja Nong Chik, political survival will depend on the individual political fortitude. As for the winners - DSAI, Azmin Ali, Nurul Izzah, Fuziah Salleh, Rafizi Ramli of PKR; Lim Guan Eng, Liew Chin Tong, Tony Pua, Teresa Kok, Ong Kian Ming of DAP; Mustafa Ali, Nik Muhamad, Husam Musa, Nasruddin Hassan Tantawi of PAS; Liow Tiong Lai, Ong Ka Chuan, and Ong Tee Keat of MCA; and PM Najib and DPM Muyiddin, Hishammuddin, Zahid Hamidi, and Khairy Jamaluddin - the internal positioning of these leaders will be closely monitored. Already shots had been fired!

1) The fight for Selangor MB
It is outright obvious that Azmin Ali is gunning for the MB-ship before the GE. He has position his team well within the PKR hierarchy; and as candidates for the GE. His closest competitor, Saifuddin Nasution lost in his bid for the Kulim Bandar Baharu seat. The only resistance left is the present MB, TS Khalid Ibrahim, who has indicated, before the GE, that intend to stay at all course, even if PR loses the state. Hence his 'escape' to Port Klang, and even that won with a minuscule vote of barely 3000 votes.

Despite the home advantage, AA failed to acknowledge 2 issues - PKR getting less seats than its partners; and public perception. The former is known to be the most probable scenario, and the second is part of any politician inbuilt function. AA performed catastrophically in managing this aftermath. By refusing to plan for what could be the most probable and not having a well thought plan for the MB-ship, AA had certainly disappointed many operatives. The throne was his for the taking, yet he chose the worst unimaginable actions - Not showing up and "QQ"-ing for the Kelana Jaya Stadium Rally on Wednesday, where more than 120,000 supporters turned up; and the attempt by his men to 'scare' off the party by indicating that AA might quit with 15 MPs, in so handling over 2/3rd majority to BN. Rather than to quell the rumors immediately, he allowed it to fester into the minds of the public (image taken a huge hit); and to call for a PC on Friday, with unremarkable results. Intentionally or not, it was a bluff that can easily be called!

Only political novices made such mistakes. His team should be fired for such big screw ups. If any good comes out of this, is that his team is now 'visible' to both allies and adversaries. This is like the failure of the Japanese to seize Guadalcanal after a battled victory, but to retreat - won the battle but lost the war!

In contrast look at the steps taken by MB TS Khalid, (1) called for a meeting T+1 after D-day with all his allies to forge a workable solution to the premiership. (2) Go for the offense to create both internal and external pressure. (3) Take credit for the 2/3rd victory and have good public relations.

Azmin Ali has allies, and he should consult with them more often. Things would have been different if he:
1) Take credit for the victory (since he ran the grassroots and his men were all over) and declare his MB-ship immediately.
2) Be gracious and magnanimous, the rally on Wednesday was a celebration of victory. The sentiment was jubilee with supporters looking forward to the next battle. A golden opportunity lost!
3) Have between 3-5 PAS members with him, this could have easily be done as the MB controls the exco positions.
4) Have his men go on the attacks, and to declare their support! (To date only Zuraida spoke but that was too little too late)
5) Display leadership. Eunuchs cannot be emperors. Internal maneuvering is useless when you don't hold the chips. Power lies in perception and do not issue a threat in which cannot be fulfilled.

P.S. Do not attempt to appear cute after a PR fiasco. Seriously, if AA intends to helm the premiership, he needs a new team. Serious reform is needed.

2) PKR Elections
The battle lines are drawn. Saifuddin Nasution will probably be appointed as a Senator when a vacancy arises - probably around 2015. As of now, his Sec-gen position is in limbo and other party seniors are already gunning that position. Tenacity is the key.

I) Azmin Ali might make a move to the presidency, but he has to outmaneuver Kak Wan internally to retirement. A direct fight for the presidency will end in sure defeat. With TSK in a solid state, Kak Wan has the necessary cover to remain the President. Elections have consequences!

II) His best option is to retain the DP; with Saifuddin's lost, no leaders in the party can mount a credible offense. Tian Chua might advice Rafizi to strike but that would be a futile attempt with disastrous consequences. It would also be unwise for Princess Reformasi, Nurul Izzah, to contemplate such an attempt. The call to action will be loud. Hopefully political sanity remains triumph. 

III) Sec-Gen - Several elders have indicated their desire for this position.

IV) Vice-Presidents and MPPs - If there's any guarantee, is that the fight will be expensive. Hopefully the party will segment the states to lower the costs, and to have a more equitable fight.

May the odds ever be in your favor!

TBC - Next series on the internal dilemma/positioning of DAP and PAS

P121: David Slays Goliath A 2nd Time - Organizing Matters

A win is a win, regardless of 100 votes, 1000 votes, or 10,000 votes - LP Operative, 2012

It was barely 9 pm, when the internal tabulation of Borang 14 showed Nurul Izzah Anwar, Puteri Reformasi, totaled a win over FT Minister Raja Nong Chik by ~1847 votes. The team was elated, but the sentiment was held back; owing to potential last minute 'ballot swapping'. A huge crowd of supporters surrounded the station, ever ready to 'charge' if any fraud was to occur. There were some controversies. In honesty, the SPR agents and police rightly handled the situation. Around 11.30, the EC announced Puteri Reformasi as the winner - Nurul Izzah Anwar slays Goliath a 2nd time.

Strategies:
1) It was known that this battle would be formidable, as Raja Nong Chik, the Federal Territories Minister, had started his campaign in 2010. He possessed and spent almost the entire allocated budget ~RM200 mil, in Lembah Pantai itself. This is in addition to the amount UMNO allocated for the election, and ~RM50 mil of his own resources.
2) Polling agent, counting agent (PACA) operations started in 2011. Most of our PACA members attended 12 training classes. The counting agents were selected in utmost discretion; to prevent leakage and any attempts to buy them off. Only veterans were placed in key areas. The team is truly grateful to the hundreds of professionals who volunteered their time to make this campaign a success. The law behind this successful operation - "If you want to volunteer, be 100% committed; else don't bother!"
3) There were black areas, grey areas, and white areas. Any attempt to make black areas white would be a futile attempt and a waste of resources. Victory lies in Bangsar - an aim of 85% voter turnout. Actual voter turnout exceeded 85%, and victory was within grasped. Turnout in 2008 was barely 70%.
4) GOTV operations - phone banking, canvassing, public programs etc were concentrated to create this miracle.
5) Next target - Sri Sentosa. This area had been neglected by the BN government for generations. The objective was to give the voters the proper respect. The result - 70% for PKR.
6) Programs were organized to micro target potential voters in grey areas such as in Sri Pahang and Pantai Permai. An increase Malay swing back to BN was to be expected.
7) A committed team is needed to win!

Raja Nong Chik's Mistakes
1) Counting the eggs before hatching - RNC expected a victory of 4-5 k votes owing to almost 3k postal voting, and an increase Malay population. He did not envision a possibility of at least 85% Chinese turnout. In fact he was already celebrating his victory, by sending invitation cards to his neighbors for a 'victory' party at TTDI during the afternoon. Though the Malay votes did swung back to BN, it was not substantial as anticipated.
2) Subpar campaign team - Despite the immense resources available, RNC could not pull this victory. Campaign matters, and a successful campaign requires a committed and well-abled team. A team of winners is more preferable than a team of giant fighters.
3) Indian Warlords - For whatever reason, RNC took this bloc for granted. 65% of Indians voted en-bloc for Nurul. Once again over confident kills.
4) GE13 was an extremely polarized race, thus an increase in voter turnout is expected. Internal polling has shown Malay youth to vote UMNO in LP. However, the turnout for Malay youth was lower than average.
5) All in all, this is a numbers game; RNC team failed the counting.

Superior Organizing beats Superior Organization
It is no doubt that RNC had a far superior organization. The logistics team was fantastic; working in multiple teams of four, and rewarding capable teams more than others. The voters agreed RNC to be 'likeable' and 'easily accessible', but these factors weren't enough to carry him through.

As for Nurul's team, resources were scarce. Propitiously, the team was highly committed and mostly professionals. This enabled a far more detailed organizing. PACA planning was meticulous, with extraordinary results as the teams lasted till the PM called victory. Kudos!

Let this be a lesson to all political operatives that the grassroots work matters most. Failure to gasp this concept would lead to catastrophic failure. Onwards!




Interesting Facts:
(1) The ballot box found in the police car was a valid box, owing to confusion and misdirection.
(2) There were no helicopter drops!
(3) For the postal votes, Nurul Izzah won ~1%.

Forward!

D-Day went by, with passionate armies clashing with utmost fury across the Peninsula. DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang won the day at Gelang Patah, slaying the reinvigorated MB of Johor Ghani Othman by more than 10 k votes. The Chinese onslaught came, with full force, approximating 90% of turnout and votes in every single district in the nation. The Barisan National did not expect this surge, but they weathered through this formidable assault. Restless the leaders of BN are, only allowing selective reporting to come out from its HQ at Putra World Trade Centre. Titans from both sides were slain - that was to be expected. Words on the streets indicated a total loss for MCA, the Chinese component in the Barisan National. The De-Facto Leader of the Pakatan Rakyat, Anwar Ibrahim, proclaimed victory at first side. Operatives knew that it was too early a call, as the incumbent has been in power since Independence. The people gazed at the television, for the latest results; FB and online portals were refreshed every second by the younger population; operatives and troops stood by their champions, declaring premature victories. By 10, the streets were quiet, except for the competitive areas.

The 13th General Election results are within expectations. Pakatan Rakyat had garnered 7 seats more than in 2008 to 89 out of the 222 parliamentary seats (BN retaining 133). PR won the popular vote, 50.3% to BN 48.8%, or a majority of 300 k votes. The Oracle had expected a PR gain of about 7 seats (spot on), with DAP gaining securing an estimated 39 seats (final tally at 38 with obvious foul play on the ruling coalition), PAS and PKR suffering owing to the reduce support of Malay votes (The Malay votes did indeed swung back to BN, but with PAS taking the full brunt), and the gains by PR in Sarawak to be 6 (spot on) and Sabah 2 (won 3).

The outcome for the federal seats were quite precise, but the composition went slightly awry. In the final tally, PAS won 21, PKR 30, and DAP 38. The expectations was for PAS to have about 22 seats, and PKR about 26.

As for the PR states, despite the Hu-Ras, PR should clean sweep Penang (check), holds a comfortable lead in Kelantan (check), and a comfortable lead in Perak (X), a slim lead in Selangor (Won 2/3rd in Selangor with 44/56 seats = X), and lost Kedah (check). For the competitive states of Terengganu and N9, BN should be able to hold both (check).

Battle of the Titans
The expectations live with the unexpected losses and gains. PAS, the conservative faction within the Pakatan Rakyat suffered the most with the top leadership falling to win. Deputy President Mat Sabu (Pendang), Harun Din (Arau), Husam Musa (Putrajaya), and Dr Dzul (Kuala Selangor) lost the federal battles. Salahuddin Ayub (Pulai) lead the charge for PAS in Johor, but fell short. Even President Hadi Awang, lost the state seat, and couldn't muster an overwhelming victory in his stronghold of Marang. All in all the liberal faction who lead the charge lost. PAS is at a crossroad, as its electorate are uncomfortable with the current direction. If PAS decides to go towards the right (which they will), they might alienate the Chinese votes who had unexpected propelled PAS to having more seats than PKR in the state of Selangor!

On the side note, PAS youth chief Nasrudin Hassan, whom was rumored to be sent to the gallows emerge victoriously, slaying Higher Education Minister Saifuddin Abdullah in the Temerloh constituency.

For PKR, its generals benefitted from the strong Chinese current, particularly to Puteri Reformasi, VP1, and daughter of Anwar Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar. The Battle of Lembah Pantai, a mix seat of 55% Malay, 23% Chinese, and 20% Indians, was the most anticipated with ex-Federal Territory Minister Raja Nong Chik, playing Goliath had begun his campaign since 2010. With unlimited resources (federal budget and rumored billionaire, and a superior machinery, Nong Chik played the role of Godfather - paving roads, rebuilding community parks, centres, food outlets, giving housing, attending every single invited weddings and funerals - to the poorer district of Kampung Kerinchi and Taman Seri Sentosa. This can be a case study of superior organizing triumph over superior organization. With limited resources, and the support of the Bangsar folks, Nurul Izzah pulled an upset with victory of 1847 votes over a total of 60176. Human chains were formed around the polling centre when the Election Commission was delaying the announcement of the results late last night. FRU (Riot squads) officials were on standby, and ballot boxes were escorted by unauthorized government agents to the centre. The machinery held their ground, and denying Nong Chik his needed recount to steal the election. This could potentially be a RM100 mil lost for the ex-Minister. 

Noted observations:
1: PACA agents must stand their ground, understand the rules, and backed by ground troops.
2: The strategy of siphoning the Malay votes Kerinchi votes did not produce sufficient payoff.
3: GOTV works as the Bangsar folks came out overwhelmingly (~90%) (Expected to win with a turnout of 87%) Of course it does help that the base is overwhelming upper middle class.
4. The Indian warlords (North and South) kept their word!
5. Regardless of how superior the organization, without sufficient generals to lead, its excess is amount to waste. (3 Kingdoms - Yuan Shao vs Cao Cao; Sun Tze, "In war, numbers alone confer no advantage.")
6. Nong Chik played it right by upping the ante in his stronghold of pantai permai and kerinchi, but his men were too confident to execute the required orders.
7. Awaiting the numbers, the Malay turnout should be ~70% and the Chinese close to ~90%.

Puteri Reformasi lives to carry the WarFlag "Hope".

Lawan Tetap Lawan!

The results were devastating to Sec-Gen Saifuddin Nasution, who lost the Kulim Bandar Bahru seat by 1871 votes. Saifuddin was expected to sail through but was by Dr. M. waves of recapturing Kedah. This loss will change the internal dynamics within PKR.

Other PKR titans who lost include Datuk Chua Jui Meng (Segamat) to Dr. S. Subramaniam by 1204 votes, Datuk Paduka Tan Yee Kew (Tanjong Malim) to Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan (He's expected to take over the MCA Leadership), and Dr. M. Monutty (Bagan Serai) lost by 1040 votes.

Excluding gains, PKR lost 8 seats including Balik Pulau (Which is expected - Check).

The biggest winner is DAP. However they suffered the most from the fraudulent practices of MCA/BN. It was supposed to be a wipe off for MCA but last minute recount rescued Health Minister Liow Tiong Lai (Bentong) by a mere 300+ seats,  and Chua Tee Yong (Labis) by a mere ~300+ seats.

Other MCA warlords who lost include Kong Cho Ha (Lumut), and Chor Chee Heung (Alor Setar). MCA has lost the support of the Chinese community with >90% of Chinese voters rejecting the party. It turns out that Ong Tee Keat played his cards right by letting go of Pandan. He can now mount a successful challenge for the presidency.

Forward!
Let today be the day of grief for the Pakatan supporters and troops. Tomorrow will be a better day, with more work needed to be done. Grassroots ought to be reorganized. Logistics must be made a top priority. We need a leader like Howard Dean who came out with a 50-state plan to "fight at every state, city, and county".

Azmin Ali has to be given credit for mounting a successful offense in Selangor. More of this on following posts.

Dr. M. has shown his relevancy, and his political acuteness at this election. By successfully conquering the northern block, he had disprove the concept that PKR strength lies in the North. More so, by PM Najib not able to capture Selangor, UMNO will be continuous in turmoil over the next 5 years!

"Nothing is harder to see into than people's nature.
The sage looks at subtle phenomena
and listens to small voices.
This harmonizes the outside with the inside
and the inside with the outside."
(from the Records of the Loyal Lord of Warriors)

"Detach from emotions and desires; get rid of any fixations."

"The loss of any army is always caused by underestimating the enemy. Therefore gather information and watch the enemy carefully."

"Good generals select intelligent officers, thoughtful advisors, and brave subordinates. They oversee their troops like a fierce tiger with wings."

"You are harmed by decadence when judgment is based on private views, when forces are mobilized for personal reasons. These generals are treacherous and immoral."

Zhuge Liang Quotes, www.zhuge-liang.net

The Butterfly Effect

The ButterFly Effect is known to be events that are construe from a series of unintended consequences. The fight of Gelang Patah has set this Effect to the main political parties - DAP, MCA, PKR, and UMNO - derailing the plans of both the heroes and villain.

The first was the dethrone of PKR strongman, who whom DSAI took much effort to woo over in 2009, Datuk Chua Jui Meng. He was the appointed as the PKR Chief of Johor, and had been preparing the ground for the eventual run of Gelang Patah comes this GE. Alas, the effort came to naught when DSAI declared DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang as the candidate on March 16*.

A brief history of P162. Gelang Patah - MCA won the seat with a 8851 majority over the PKR candidate in the 2008 GE12. Though sizable, it was a reduce margins as MCA won with a majority of 31,666 votes in 2004. Today, the number of voters had swell by over 25% to 106,864 voters - 52% Chinese, 34% Malay, and 12% Indians. Hence the intense competition over this seat, as it's one of the three Chinese majority seats in Johor; the others being Bakri, and Kulai.

The consequence was an abrupt blackout from Datuk Chua. Regardless of DSAI intent of offering this Class A seat to its partner; DAP thought it had secured another round of victorious negotiation - gaining  one, losing none. Political analysts and the media already predicting a +1 victory for DAP, PR, and Lim Kit Siang, and dared MCA to field in their best candidate; preferably its Commander-in-Chief Dato Chua Soi Lek. This forced the MCA President back to the board room for a restrategizing session. The pressure was on, particularly from the UMNO warlords to have him contesting P162 - pitting the two most prominent Chinese leaders from rival factions for the Chinese voters to decide. Rumor came out that perhaps Deputy Education Minister Wee might be the scape goat to replace the President. Then something most unexpected occur! Johor MB Ghani Othman, whom was the Chief of the state since 1995, and had recently lost favor and not expected to be fielded in this GE13, suddenly found salvation to thrust his political career forward. A savvy politician who has a keen sense to opportunity; volunteered to face off with Lim Kit Siang. This outcome was a total surprise to practically the whole nation - making Gelang Patah the No 1 most anticipated battle in the nation. 

The unintended consequences to this revelation sent ripple effects to several prominent leaders. Ong Tee Keat, ex-MCA President, who still harbors to make a comeback, is expecting to be fielded in his stronghold of Pandan, Selangor by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. This is despite heavy objections by Dato Chua Soi Lek. But by trading off an MCA seat to UMNO, he got to fulfill his desire of securing his position in the party by removing OTK out from this GE!. Thus OTK becomes the 2nd victim, after Chua Jui Meng. The third victim was President Chua himself, as by backing out from the fight in Gelang Patah, has crippled himself and thus out from the current battle. It appears that Gelang Patah has finally settled the score for the old MCA rivals - 3 warlords but no victors. DAP seems to overplay their confidence and suffer a severe defeat in Johor due to the immense arrogance displayed publicly.

DAP might choose to double down on their strategy with the rumor of fielding Tony Pua to Kulai. The price of defeat may be too high for such a move as Tony has been a vivid and effective fundraiser to the party. Regardless, the biggest loser may just be the Chinese community in this nation. In this case, voting either for the incumbent or PR as akin to cutting of one leg or the other when contracting an acute infection.

This battle would bring either greater glory or an expedient retirement to the 72 year old veteran DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang. This will be his last GE owing to this age and health. Perhaps history will remember him kindly for this heroic undertaking.

As for Datuk Chua Jui Meng, he will be facing off with Human Resource Minister S. Subramaniam of MIC in Segamat. With just 3 weeks to polling, there might not be enough time to prepare sufficient field work for a successful operation. Even with an expected loss, Datuk Chua will give S. Subramaniam a run for his money. The voter demographics of P140 consists of 46% Chinese, 44% Malay and 10% Indians. Pakatan Rakyat's groundwork is still at its infant stage in Johor, and is expected to obtain between 15-20% of the Malay electorate - only an irritable punch. A 30% Chinese support is sufficient for BN to maintain the fort, with a probable loss of Bakri and Kluang.

The next political conundrum is Ong Tee Keat. Will he contest Pandan as an independent; thus earning the wrath of his former comrades and risk being sack from the party and dashing his dreams of making a comeback to the Presidency? Or will he sit out an wait for the next opportunity; severely weaken by not being an elected representative? Alternatively, but unlikely, crossing over to PR, most likely to the DAP. This would certainly be an irrational move as it brings only short term glory but long term banishment.

The consequence of this Gelang Patah feat of winning an extra seat for DAP turns out to be a bluff at the finale.











(Will be correcting my grammer later, and with updated progress)









*the date the news was leaked

GE13 - Heroes and Villians

The 13th General Election will be a monumental election to be recorded in the annals of Malaysia history as generals in both the Barisan National (BN) and the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) will meet head on - the price of defeat is to retire from politics. Several top leaders, albeit more to come, have announced their intention of moving out from their strongholds to fight decisive battles - Lim Kit Siang, Liew Chin Tong, Fong Po Kuan (TBC), and Kulasegaran (TBC) from the DAP; Dato Mansor Othman, Rafiza Ramli, Datuk Chua Jui Meng (TBC), and Datuk Tan Kee Kwong from PKR; Salahuddin Ayub and Datuk Seri Mohd Nizar from PAS; and from BN, MCA old- Donald Lim, Ng Yen Yen, and Ong Ka Chuan; Devamany from the MIC; Teng Chang Yeow, and Chia Kwang Chye; and as for UMNO Dato Zainal Abidin Osman*, Raja Nong Chik and many others.

Incumbents Generalissimo - Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar, Fuziah Salleh, Ong Tee Keat, Chor Chee Heung, Subramaniam, Kong Cho Ha*, Dato Seri Nazri*, and Datuk Seri Hishammudin* - these dignified individuals will be facing tempestuous battles profuse with malign sentiments.

With 79 seats out of 222 (166 in the Peninsula, 56 from Sabah and Sarawak), DS Anwar Ibrahim will need at least another 40 seats to form the next federal government. An uphill but possible task, DSAI believes that PR can win up to 12 seats in Johor, 8 in Sarawak, 12 in Sabah, while capturing another 8 more seats from PR leaning states in the North. Or in the words of Tian Chua, PKR senior VP and head of the Heavenly faction, "10 from Johor, 10 from Sabah, and 10 from Sarawak". Such is the optimism of our top leadership - endless possibilities and victory inevitable!

Arithmetic
In the 2008  elections, the PR had 30% Malay support, 75% Chinese support, and 70% Indian support. If we maintain this ratio, the results will be status quo of retaining 5 states and denying BN the 2/3rd majority - a victory for PR as it realizes a 2-party system in Malaysia. To win the federal government, PR would need a minimum of 80% Chinese support, at least 60% Indian support and 40% Malay support. Pakatan Rakyat leaders are confident to meet this desired numbers. Any deviation from this figures would bring an element of surprise and changes to the leadership structure of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

Thus the deviation is the most probable.

Recent survey, which I concur, has shown that Pakatan Rakyat has max the support of the Chinese community at 82%. In urban areas such as the Klang Valley, the support could surpass 90% and semi-rural areas/ old-towns the support at about 65%. As for Johor, I expect our Chinese support to be 2/3, at 67%.

As for the Indian support, it can be no doubt that PR is losing this group of electorate, possibly winning only 40% of the community - a combination of educated and urban votes with some rural votes. The loss is attributed to the lack of fieldwork - logistical as our leaders refuse to invest in the necessary infrastructure. The reasons could be owing to the lack of funding, and sufficient top Indian leaders in the coalition. Thus I expect PR to get 40% and BN 60%.

The Malay electorate will be the deciding factor into the formation of the next Federal Government. At a base line of 30% support to PR, the electorate has increase by about 2-4% national; thus being the absolute kingmakers in most seats. This is particularly significant to Selangor where an erosion of Malay support might cause PR to lose this prized state. A loss of Selangor would mean a consolidation of powers to the PM DS Najib Razak - stability to UMNO and deep vulnerability to the survival of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

Sadly, I'm expecting the erosion of the Malay support to between 22% - 25%. This is attributed to the 3 Rs - Race, Religion, and Royalty - a potent combination that has never fail to rally any conservative base in the world. The counter to this stratagem is superior fieldwork, but this has yet to be done by the PR leaders as like I've said before - boring and requires hardwork.

Consequences
If indeed the Pakatan Rakyat receives 82% of Chinese support, 40% of Indian support and 22-25% of Malay support, the dynamics of the PR coalition would undergo severe changes. This would be an abrogation of the PR leadership, especially to the leaders in PKR and PAS. The hold on the state of Selangor could be as low as 3-seats, an uncomfortable margin to the current 36-20. In terms of parliamentary seats, DAP would emerge as the victor with close to or about 40 seats, an increment of at least 10, while PAS and PKR will lose 3-5 seats each on aggregate.

The relationship between the parties, and the leadership structure would undergo shocking political vicissitudes. This new relationship shall be thoroughly discuss in subsequent posts as it involves leadership tussle in winning states particularly the prized Selangor.

But, PR can find comfort that BN is being denied their 2/3rd majority twice in a row and will have to get use to the new political reality. The winner will be ordinary Malaysians, and the biggest loser will be the Barisan National coalition, with its component parties pulverized!

What will happen to UMNO except for another five years of internal instability?



Next: Battle of the Titans

* indicates possibilities

Updates: It seems that PKR is not going to give the Home Minister Hishammudin a fight for his political career.

Political Organization

Day 2,3,4 and (5): Lobbying

With D-Day impending, the jostling for seats is getting very much heated, with insiders leaking information on who's at where's and what! Sandiwaras such as the 'not keen to contest', 'subject to party leadership', or 'for the greater good' have become common occurrences. It almost as if the candidates and candidates wannabes are the most altruistic and noblest individuals, devoting their family and lives to the well-being of the general populace. Politics is not a high school. Elections is not a popularity contest. Governance is not a student leadership council. Elections have consequences. Politics dictates the direction of the nation - the economy, the security, the wages! Politics is a career choice, just like a doctor, a lawyer, an entrepreneur, a business tycoon; it's repetitive, boring, and requires hard work. Most importantly, politics is no charity. The people are not selecting public servants, rather are electing a member of their community to lead and to represent them. They are selecting their 'boss', the chief executive. Politicians are not accountable to the people, only to the party bosses and constituents;  just like the management of a public listed company is not beholden to common shareholders; but only to major ones, who have a seat in the board. Thus politics is a game of perception, where the bluffs can be call, with consequences!

Last night, Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced his intention to stay in Permatang Pauh. That should be the case as now is not the time for the senior to be adventurous. PR needs him to campaign around the nation, and he would not be able to do so unless he stays in his stronghold. Though argument can be made that moving to Perak would be the wiser move, as PR needs to expand the parliamentary seat for DSAI to become the next Prime Minister. A move to Tambun would rattle the ranks of his old nemesis - Dr. M and the old UMNO machinery. The commander-in-chief of the PR would be leading the charge to recapture Perak, the morale of the troops be very much uplifted. It comes with a risk, but the risk is worth as DSAI needs only to move around Perak and Selangor. The battle down south is a battle for the Rocket to expand their base; and the East is still a PAS battleground.

Early rumors has it that DSAI would contest in either Lumut, or Padang Rengas. Lumut should have been the preferred choice as it has a 35% chinese base; and the incumbent MCA sec-gen DS Kong Cho Ha won by a mere 298 votes. This victory no doubt is won through postal voting by the army as there are several army camps in the vicinity of Lumut. This can be overcome with the support from the Malay ground to DSAI. Alas, this is now mere fantasy. An opportunity unrealized.

Political Organization    
What consists of a political organization? It's the management of five elements - general strategy, groundwork, messaging, planning, and fundraising. The key to having the most successful organization lies to its groundwork and fundraising prowess. Grassroots organization and fundraising are the most difficult tasks and therefore often neglected by almost all politicians. Most prefer to do only messaging; as the reward comes upfront, but during election itself, has very minimal impact. The political maestro, Lee Kuan Yew, had concurred with the above statement, having stating that parliamentary debates are meant for the elites - a theatre to appease the what conservaties like Rush Limbaugh loves to say "latte sipping Starbucks liberals". All politics are local! Period! It's bread and butter after all, with a touch of emotional connection.

Harry Reid, the majority leader in the US Senate, was expected to lose his reelection during the shellacking 2010 campaign, but he prevailed, to the disgust of Republicans, while throwing political analysts off guard. I've stated on record that he will prevail, because he understands politics. He understands the nature and the importance of groundwork, or fieldwork in the States. Now he's the most powerful politician in the Legislature and possibly the whole US administration. He's probably the 2nd most powerful Majority Leader in the Senate after Lyndon B. Johnson - one of my favorite politicians of all time.

This is no different in Malaysia. To win an election means having the necessary groundwork. This means having develop the logistical proficiently to deliver the votes and to ensure the votes are counted as it is.

           Stalin - "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the vote"

Or, to be more precise

"You know, comrades," says Stalin, "that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how."

Winning an election is no different that winning a war, it's a battle of logistics and a battle of attrition. These factors shall be explain in my later post.

GOTV - Got Out the Votes
I was actually very surprise to see this word in our briefing. Of course it has been translated as "Getting out the voters" (As I had stated in my previous post, very different strategies involve). Regardless, GOTV is the core principal to groundwork - grassroots building, and fieldwork.

The party expects to implement GOTV within 3 weeks to polling. This is a really big misconception to a well thought political strategy. A well run GOTV can produce miracles, such as the Howard Dean 50-states strategy that lay the path to subsequent Democrats and Obama victories in the Red states, and Obama triumphs over Hillary during the hotly contested 2008 primary. The lesson in this is that GOTV takes time. It requires real work - planning, fundraising - and lots of effort and hard work. More so, it needs at least 15 months to lay an effective GOTV. There is no shortcut to GOTV.

The concept of GOTV is to churn out supporters, particularly in unfamiliar or opposing territories. Thus  a successful GOTV will allow the candidate/party to find friends in the 'black' areas. This is to dispel the myth that GOTV will turn 'black' areas 'white'.  Likewise, you don't educate the voters, you appeal to the emotional attachment of the voters to make them feel familiar/intimate.

According to PKR Deputy President Azmin Ali, the list of candidates for all seats should be finalize by Sunday. This is a matter of urgency as candidates wil not move if uncertain of its status - a problem face by politicians from both side of the aisle. Already, the jockeying has reach fantastical new heights with magniloquent obituaries delivered to political rivals. Keep it coming.

May the odds be ever in your favor!



Further discussion of political strategies will follow, as well as its relevance to our GE13 and how it would impact the results.

Disclaimer: These views are honest and private to 'me'. For reading purposes only, no reposting allow. Please respect my privacy of thoughts and emotions. Allow me to be objective and most importantly truthful.