P121: David Slays Goliath A 2nd Time - Organizing Matters

A win is a win, regardless of 100 votes, 1000 votes, or 10,000 votes - LP Operative, 2012

It was barely 9 pm, when the internal tabulation of Borang 14 showed Nurul Izzah Anwar, Puteri Reformasi, totaled a win over FT Minister Raja Nong Chik by ~1847 votes. The team was elated, but the sentiment was held back; owing to potential last minute 'ballot swapping'. A huge crowd of supporters surrounded the station, ever ready to 'charge' if any fraud was to occur. There were some controversies. In honesty, the SPR agents and police rightly handled the situation. Around 11.30, the EC announced Puteri Reformasi as the winner - Nurul Izzah Anwar slays Goliath a 2nd time.

Strategies:
1) It was known that this battle would be formidable, as Raja Nong Chik, the Federal Territories Minister, had started his campaign in 2010. He possessed and spent almost the entire allocated budget ~RM200 mil, in Lembah Pantai itself. This is in addition to the amount UMNO allocated for the election, and ~RM50 mil of his own resources.
2) Polling agent, counting agent (PACA) operations started in 2011. Most of our PACA members attended 12 training classes. The counting agents were selected in utmost discretion; to prevent leakage and any attempts to buy them off. Only veterans were placed in key areas. The team is truly grateful to the hundreds of professionals who volunteered their time to make this campaign a success. The law behind this successful operation - "If you want to volunteer, be 100% committed; else don't bother!"
3) There were black areas, grey areas, and white areas. Any attempt to make black areas white would be a futile attempt and a waste of resources. Victory lies in Bangsar - an aim of 85% voter turnout. Actual voter turnout exceeded 85%, and victory was within grasped. Turnout in 2008 was barely 70%.
4) GOTV operations - phone banking, canvassing, public programs etc were concentrated to create this miracle.
5) Next target - Sri Sentosa. This area had been neglected by the BN government for generations. The objective was to give the voters the proper respect. The result - 70% for PKR.
6) Programs were organized to micro target potential voters in grey areas such as in Sri Pahang and Pantai Permai. An increase Malay swing back to BN was to be expected.
7) A committed team is needed to win!

Raja Nong Chik's Mistakes
1) Counting the eggs before hatching - RNC expected a victory of 4-5 k votes owing to almost 3k postal voting, and an increase Malay population. He did not envision a possibility of at least 85% Chinese turnout. In fact he was already celebrating his victory, by sending invitation cards to his neighbors for a 'victory' party at TTDI during the afternoon. Though the Malay votes did swung back to BN, it was not substantial as anticipated.
2) Subpar campaign team - Despite the immense resources available, RNC could not pull this victory. Campaign matters, and a successful campaign requires a committed and well-abled team. A team of winners is more preferable than a team of giant fighters.
3) Indian Warlords - For whatever reason, RNC took this bloc for granted. 65% of Indians voted en-bloc for Nurul. Once again over confident kills.
4) GE13 was an extremely polarized race, thus an increase in voter turnout is expected. Internal polling has shown Malay youth to vote UMNO in LP. However, the turnout for Malay youth was lower than average.
5) All in all, this is a numbers game; RNC team failed the counting.

Superior Organizing beats Superior Organization
It is no doubt that RNC had a far superior organization. The logistics team was fantastic; working in multiple teams of four, and rewarding capable teams more than others. The voters agreed RNC to be 'likeable' and 'easily accessible', but these factors weren't enough to carry him through.

As for Nurul's team, resources were scarce. Propitiously, the team was highly committed and mostly professionals. This enabled a far more detailed organizing. PACA planning was meticulous, with extraordinary results as the teams lasted till the PM called victory. Kudos!

Let this be a lesson to all political operatives that the grassroots work matters most. Failure to gasp this concept would lead to catastrophic failure. Onwards!




Interesting Facts:
(1) The ballot box found in the police car was a valid box, owing to confusion and misdirection.
(2) There were no helicopter drops!
(3) For the postal votes, Nurul Izzah won ~1%.

My Story So Far - Malaysia and the 13th General Election

Banners and flags of political parties can be seen fluttering; palpitating the hearts and minds of most Malaysians like the flapping of butterflies. This occurrence has already been the norm as this nation, known as bolehland been put on election mode since the late 2011. In February, postals and stickers of elected representatives, or the Yang Berhormats (YBs) and YB-wannabes can be seen beaming with the widest and most alluring smiles, in major highways, cities, and towns inclusive both urban and rural alike. This will be the most divisive election. The electorate has already made up their minds. The people is ready to vote. But the Prime Minister is not..... till today!

At precisely 11.30 am today, the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dato Seri Najib Tun Razak, had dissolved the Parliament, paving the way for the 13th General Election. Finally D-day has arrived.

The Beginning
It started in 2008, with the ruling Barisan National (BN) expecting an overwhelming victory - a norm for the past 50 years, was astonished with the loss of 5 out of 13 states, losing 82 out of 222 seats, and foregoing the 2/3rd majority in Parliament for the first time since Independence. The opposition - Pakatan Rakyat (PR) - captured the prized state of Selangor, as well as Penang, Perak, Kedah, and the usual Kelantan. 46.75% of the populace voted for PR. Though in 2009 Perak fell back to BN through a sordid and unscrupulous political coup  (though PR leaders had been warned but failed to take appropriate measures), and several YBs had shifted to pro-BN independent MPs; the Pakatan Rakyat alliance remained intact - remarkable to the eyes of political operatives in the ruling coalition. Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), led by ex-DPM Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim and the noble Datin Seri Wan Azizah (Kak Wan); the Democratic Action Party (DAP) led by supremo Lim Kik Siang, and his son, the chivalrous Lim Guan Eng; and PAS led by Tok Guru Nik Aziz and President Hadi Awang, are solidly united to ONE common purpose - toppling the ruling Barisan National. Already component parties in the ruling government - MCA, MIC, and Gerakan, have been severely wounded, losing the majority of the seats; and in the eyes of the draconian UMNO - the three partners had become liabilities. Unknown to UMNO was that the loss of the coalition partners is due to UMNO, over-indulging and treating the partners as derelicts. With inflation sky-rocketing, while the princelings and the politically connected gnawing bigger slices of the economic pie; the silent majority in the urban states shocked the ruling coalition by voting across racial lines for the opposition - collectively.

The gerrymandering by the puppeteer, marginalizing the minority races through various means - having an extremely large constituency or splitting the minority races to only roughly 20+ to 40+ percentage of the electorate in the constituency; - backfired! (through a minor split among the majority and a united minority to produce a small but decisive victory in the first-past-the-post electoral system)

Where 'I' come in
Having return from the states; fulfilling my childhood dreams of working for the Clintons ^^! (land of opportunities where dreams do come true); I started as a political aide for the young, and charismatic Nurul Izzah Anwar - daughter of the opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. It was another dream came true as I was thrusted into the halls of power, always on the push! Being one of the four Praetorian guards (a term we call ourselves), it was success after success, out-maneuvering  and abashing political adversaries - externally and internally. It was most awesome when my prepared speech on democracy successfully baited Dato Seri Nazri, the Minister of Law into agreeing with our point of view,stating on captured TV "You are correct!"; and being the man in charge, and winning the most votes as vice-president in the party internal and first direct open elections despite all the negativity and chicanery that was threw upon us  (Might I add that I maybe one of the few who had the experience in a primary process). It was captivating.

All good things must come to an end. The markings were on the wall. I could feel it, yet powerless to change fate. Being ardent, yet naive; I entangled into a young man's folly - slightly arrogant, thought invincible to negative attacks by trusted comrades - fell out of grace and decided to take a break. That had consequence with all the Praetorian being out of favor (and only one left today). It was dark, it was stormy, and in the words of Churchill, "...I have worked very hard all my life and I have achieved a great deal, in the end to achieve nothing'.

Fate would have it that I remain in this field. Being involve in local rather than national politics, and having the time to improve, and to catch up on the readings - Churchill, Roosevelt, Eisenshower, to the leaders of the 21st century etc.

Today 3/4 - Day 1 of Dissolution
I remember telling the team, on record, that we'll have an election in April 2011, and it was the dissolvement of the Sarawak State Assembly; and we would have another till the end. I have to admit that i'm off by a week, predicting the dissolution to be on the 9th of April rather than the 3rd. Only the Prime Minister knows and he had chose today as D-day. Nominations should be within the next 10 days and the polling expected to be on the 27th/28th of April.

Over the next 3 weeks, I shall discussed strategies and fore-castings. Unlike many junkies/pundits, I usually make it clear what i think the results will be; with basis, because I too want to continuous improve by learning from what is right and what is wrong. It could the over/under estimation of the electoral mood; a data error (lacking of updated data owing to too much noise); pure bias owing to emotional attachment, or just plain wrong. Because politics is living, just like the law is living.

 I attended a late night meeting today - surprised at the presentation with newly updated terms such as GOTV (Get out the vote rather than Getting out the voters; very different as it involve different stratagems), elaborate organizational structures, and so on. Obviously Team Obama is doing well, providing political consultations to political parties all over the world. (**More like 101 reports but sold at exorbitant rates) Needless, these are interesting times.


Disclaimer: These views are honest and private to 'me'. For reading purposes only, no reposting allow. Please respect my privacy of thoughts and emotions. Allow me to be objective and most importantly truthful.