Or weep and wail with sorrow.
What California is today,
The rest will be tomorrow.
-Maroon Bulldog
The call for unity is loud, after a tedious and competitive general election. To some leaders - Saifuddin Nasution, Mat Sabu, Ali Rustam, Kong Cho Ha, Raja Nong Chik - the results were brutal. A victorious display became naught owing to a concoction of over-confidence and arrogance. A speedy retirement for the soon to be ex-MCA sec gen, and the ex-MB of Malacca; and for Saifuddin Nasution, Mat Sabu and Raja Nong Chik, political survival will depend on the individual political fortitude. As for the winners - DSAI, Azmin Ali, Nurul Izzah, Fuziah Salleh, Rafizi Ramli of PKR; Lim Guan Eng, Liew Chin Tong, Tony Pua, Teresa Kok, Ong Kian Ming of DAP; Mustafa Ali, Nik Muhamad, Husam Musa, Nasruddin Hassan Tantawi of PAS; Liow Tiong Lai, Ong Ka Chuan, and Ong Tee Keat of MCA; and PM Najib and DPM Muyiddin, Hishammuddin, Zahid Hamidi, and Khairy Jamaluddin - the internal positioning of these leaders will be closely monitored. Already shots had been fired!
1) The fight for Selangor MB
It is outright obvious that Azmin Ali is gunning for the MB-ship before the GE. He has position his team well within the PKR hierarchy; and as candidates for the GE. His closest competitor, Saifuddin Nasution lost in his bid for the Kulim Bandar Baharu seat. The only resistance left is the present MB, TS Khalid Ibrahim, who has indicated, before the GE, that intend to stay at all course, even if PR loses the state. Hence his 'escape' to Port Klang, and even that won with a minuscule vote of barely 3000 votes.
Despite the home advantage, AA failed to acknowledge 2 issues - PKR getting less seats than its partners; and public perception. The former is known to be the most probable scenario, and the second is part of any politician inbuilt function. AA performed catastrophically in managing this aftermath. By refusing to plan for what could be the most probable and not having a well thought plan for the MB-ship, AA had certainly disappointed many operatives. The throne was his for the taking, yet he chose the worst unimaginable actions - Not showing up and "QQ"-ing for the Kelana Jaya Stadium Rally on Wednesday, where more than 120,000 supporters turned up; and the attempt by his men to 'scare' off the party by indicating that AA might quit with 15 MPs, in so handling over 2/3rd majority to BN. Rather than to quell the rumors immediately, he allowed it to fester into the minds of the public (image taken a huge hit); and to call for a PC on Friday, with unremarkable results. Intentionally or not, it was a bluff that can easily be called!
Only political novices made such mistakes. His team should be fired for such big screw ups. If any good comes out of this, is that his team is now 'visible' to both allies and adversaries. This is like the failure of the Japanese to seize Guadalcanal after a battled victory, but to retreat - won the battle but lost the war!
In contrast look at the steps taken by MB TS Khalid, (1) called for a meeting T+1 after D-day with all his allies to forge a workable solution to the premiership. (2) Go for the offense to create both internal and external pressure. (3) Take credit for the 2/3rd victory and have good public relations.
Azmin Ali has allies, and he should consult with them more often. Things would have been different if he:
1) Take credit for the victory (since he ran the grassroots and his men were all over) and declare his MB-ship immediately.
2) Be gracious and magnanimous, the rally on Wednesday was a celebration of victory. The sentiment was jubilee with supporters looking forward to the next battle. A golden opportunity lost!
3) Have between 3-5 PAS members with him, this could have easily be done as the MB controls the exco positions.
4) Have his men go on the attacks, and to declare their support! (To date only Zuraida spoke but that was too little too late)
5) Display leadership. Eunuchs cannot be emperors. Internal maneuvering is useless when you don't hold the chips. Power lies in perception and do not issue a threat in which cannot be fulfilled.
2) PKR Elections
The battle lines are drawn. Saifuddin Nasution will probably be appointed as a Senator when a vacancy arises - probably around 2015. As of now, his Sec-gen position is in limbo and other party seniors are already gunning that position. Tenacity is the key.
I) Azmin Ali might make a move to the presidency, but he has to outmaneuver Kak Wan internally to retirement. A direct fight for the presidency will end in sure defeat. With TSK in a solid state, Kak Wan has the necessary cover to remain the President. Elections have consequences!
II) His best option is to retain the DP; with Saifuddin's lost, no leaders in the party can mount a credible offense. Tian Chua might advice Rafizi to strike but that would be a futile attempt with disastrous consequences. It would also be unwise for Princess Reformasi, Nurul Izzah, to contemplate such an attempt. The call to action will be loud. Hopefully political sanity remains triumph.
III) Sec-Gen - Several elders have indicated their desire for this position.
IV) Vice-Presidents and MPPs - If there's any guarantee, is that the fight will be expensive. Hopefully the party will segment the states to lower the costs, and to have a more equitable fight.
May the odds ever be in your favor!
TBC - Next series on the internal dilemma/positioning of DAP and PAS
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