Forward!

D-Day went by, with passionate armies clashing with utmost fury across the Peninsula. DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang won the day at Gelang Patah, slaying the reinvigorated MB of Johor Ghani Othman by more than 10 k votes. The Chinese onslaught came, with full force, approximating 90% of turnout and votes in every single district in the nation. The Barisan National did not expect this surge, but they weathered through this formidable assault. Restless the leaders of BN are, only allowing selective reporting to come out from its HQ at Putra World Trade Centre. Titans from both sides were slain - that was to be expected. Words on the streets indicated a total loss for MCA, the Chinese component in the Barisan National. The De-Facto Leader of the Pakatan Rakyat, Anwar Ibrahim, proclaimed victory at first side. Operatives knew that it was too early a call, as the incumbent has been in power since Independence. The people gazed at the television, for the latest results; FB and online portals were refreshed every second by the younger population; operatives and troops stood by their champions, declaring premature victories. By 10, the streets were quiet, except for the competitive areas.

The 13th General Election results are within expectations. Pakatan Rakyat had garnered 7 seats more than in 2008 to 89 out of the 222 parliamentary seats (BN retaining 133). PR won the popular vote, 50.3% to BN 48.8%, or a majority of 300 k votes. The Oracle had expected a PR gain of about 7 seats (spot on), with DAP gaining securing an estimated 39 seats (final tally at 38 with obvious foul play on the ruling coalition), PAS and PKR suffering owing to the reduce support of Malay votes (The Malay votes did indeed swung back to BN, but with PAS taking the full brunt), and the gains by PR in Sarawak to be 6 (spot on) and Sabah 2 (won 3).

The outcome for the federal seats were quite precise, but the composition went slightly awry. In the final tally, PAS won 21, PKR 30, and DAP 38. The expectations was for PAS to have about 22 seats, and PKR about 26.

As for the PR states, despite the Hu-Ras, PR should clean sweep Penang (check), holds a comfortable lead in Kelantan (check), and a comfortable lead in Perak (X), a slim lead in Selangor (Won 2/3rd in Selangor with 44/56 seats = X), and lost Kedah (check). For the competitive states of Terengganu and N9, BN should be able to hold both (check).

Battle of the Titans
The expectations live with the unexpected losses and gains. PAS, the conservative faction within the Pakatan Rakyat suffered the most with the top leadership falling to win. Deputy President Mat Sabu (Pendang), Harun Din (Arau), Husam Musa (Putrajaya), and Dr Dzul (Kuala Selangor) lost the federal battles. Salahuddin Ayub (Pulai) lead the charge for PAS in Johor, but fell short. Even President Hadi Awang, lost the state seat, and couldn't muster an overwhelming victory in his stronghold of Marang. All in all the liberal faction who lead the charge lost. PAS is at a crossroad, as its electorate are uncomfortable with the current direction. If PAS decides to go towards the right (which they will), they might alienate the Chinese votes who had unexpected propelled PAS to having more seats than PKR in the state of Selangor!

On the side note, PAS youth chief Nasrudin Hassan, whom was rumored to be sent to the gallows emerge victoriously, slaying Higher Education Minister Saifuddin Abdullah in the Temerloh constituency.

For PKR, its generals benefitted from the strong Chinese current, particularly to Puteri Reformasi, VP1, and daughter of Anwar Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar. The Battle of Lembah Pantai, a mix seat of 55% Malay, 23% Chinese, and 20% Indians, was the most anticipated with ex-Federal Territory Minister Raja Nong Chik, playing Goliath had begun his campaign since 2010. With unlimited resources (federal budget and rumored billionaire, and a superior machinery, Nong Chik played the role of Godfather - paving roads, rebuilding community parks, centres, food outlets, giving housing, attending every single invited weddings and funerals - to the poorer district of Kampung Kerinchi and Taman Seri Sentosa. This can be a case study of superior organizing triumph over superior organization. With limited resources, and the support of the Bangsar folks, Nurul Izzah pulled an upset with victory of 1847 votes over a total of 60176. Human chains were formed around the polling centre when the Election Commission was delaying the announcement of the results late last night. FRU (Riot squads) officials were on standby, and ballot boxes were escorted by unauthorized government agents to the centre. The machinery held their ground, and denying Nong Chik his needed recount to steal the election. This could potentially be a RM100 mil lost for the ex-Minister. 

Noted observations:
1: PACA agents must stand their ground, understand the rules, and backed by ground troops.
2: The strategy of siphoning the Malay votes Kerinchi votes did not produce sufficient payoff.
3: GOTV works as the Bangsar folks came out overwhelmingly (~90%) (Expected to win with a turnout of 87%) Of course it does help that the base is overwhelming upper middle class.
4. The Indian warlords (North and South) kept their word!
5. Regardless of how superior the organization, without sufficient generals to lead, its excess is amount to waste. (3 Kingdoms - Yuan Shao vs Cao Cao; Sun Tze, "In war, numbers alone confer no advantage.")
6. Nong Chik played it right by upping the ante in his stronghold of pantai permai and kerinchi, but his men were too confident to execute the required orders.
7. Awaiting the numbers, the Malay turnout should be ~70% and the Chinese close to ~90%.

Puteri Reformasi lives to carry the WarFlag "Hope".

Lawan Tetap Lawan!

The results were devastating to Sec-Gen Saifuddin Nasution, who lost the Kulim Bandar Bahru seat by 1871 votes. Saifuddin was expected to sail through but was by Dr. M. waves of recapturing Kedah. This loss will change the internal dynamics within PKR.

Other PKR titans who lost include Datuk Chua Jui Meng (Segamat) to Dr. S. Subramaniam by 1204 votes, Datuk Paduka Tan Yee Kew (Tanjong Malim) to Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan (He's expected to take over the MCA Leadership), and Dr. M. Monutty (Bagan Serai) lost by 1040 votes.

Excluding gains, PKR lost 8 seats including Balik Pulau (Which is expected - Check).

The biggest winner is DAP. However they suffered the most from the fraudulent practices of MCA/BN. It was supposed to be a wipe off for MCA but last minute recount rescued Health Minister Liow Tiong Lai (Bentong) by a mere 300+ seats,  and Chua Tee Yong (Labis) by a mere ~300+ seats.

Other MCA warlords who lost include Kong Cho Ha (Lumut), and Chor Chee Heung (Alor Setar). MCA has lost the support of the Chinese community with >90% of Chinese voters rejecting the party. It turns out that Ong Tee Keat played his cards right by letting go of Pandan. He can now mount a successful challenge for the presidency.

Forward!
Let today be the day of grief for the Pakatan supporters and troops. Tomorrow will be a better day, with more work needed to be done. Grassroots ought to be reorganized. Logistics must be made a top priority. We need a leader like Howard Dean who came out with a 50-state plan to "fight at every state, city, and county".

Azmin Ali has to be given credit for mounting a successful offense in Selangor. More of this on following posts.

Dr. M. has shown his relevancy, and his political acuteness at this election. By successfully conquering the northern block, he had disprove the concept that PKR strength lies in the North. More so, by PM Najib not able to capture Selangor, UMNO will be continuous in turmoil over the next 5 years!

"Nothing is harder to see into than people's nature.
The sage looks at subtle phenomena
and listens to small voices.
This harmonizes the outside with the inside
and the inside with the outside."
(from the Records of the Loyal Lord of Warriors)

"Detach from emotions and desires; get rid of any fixations."

"The loss of any army is always caused by underestimating the enemy. Therefore gather information and watch the enemy carefully."

"Good generals select intelligent officers, thoughtful advisors, and brave subordinates. They oversee their troops like a fierce tiger with wings."

"You are harmed by decadence when judgment is based on private views, when forces are mobilized for personal reasons. These generals are treacherous and immoral."

Zhuge Liang Quotes, www.zhuge-liang.net