Forward!

D-Day went by, with passionate armies clashing with utmost fury across the Peninsula. DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang won the day at Gelang Patah, slaying the reinvigorated MB of Johor Ghani Othman by more than 10 k votes. The Chinese onslaught came, with full force, approximating 90% of turnout and votes in every single district in the nation. The Barisan National did not expect this surge, but they weathered through this formidable assault. Restless the leaders of BN are, only allowing selective reporting to come out from its HQ at Putra World Trade Centre. Titans from both sides were slain - that was to be expected. Words on the streets indicated a total loss for MCA, the Chinese component in the Barisan National. The De-Facto Leader of the Pakatan Rakyat, Anwar Ibrahim, proclaimed victory at first side. Operatives knew that it was too early a call, as the incumbent has been in power since Independence. The people gazed at the television, for the latest results; FB and online portals were refreshed every second by the younger population; operatives and troops stood by their champions, declaring premature victories. By 10, the streets were quiet, except for the competitive areas.

The 13th General Election results are within expectations. Pakatan Rakyat had garnered 7 seats more than in 2008 to 89 out of the 222 parliamentary seats (BN retaining 133). PR won the popular vote, 50.3% to BN 48.8%, or a majority of 300 k votes. The Oracle had expected a PR gain of about 7 seats (spot on), with DAP gaining securing an estimated 39 seats (final tally at 38 with obvious foul play on the ruling coalition), PAS and PKR suffering owing to the reduce support of Malay votes (The Malay votes did indeed swung back to BN, but with PAS taking the full brunt), and the gains by PR in Sarawak to be 6 (spot on) and Sabah 2 (won 3).

The outcome for the federal seats were quite precise, but the composition went slightly awry. In the final tally, PAS won 21, PKR 30, and DAP 38. The expectations was for PAS to have about 22 seats, and PKR about 26.

As for the PR states, despite the Hu-Ras, PR should clean sweep Penang (check), holds a comfortable lead in Kelantan (check), and a comfortable lead in Perak (X), a slim lead in Selangor (Won 2/3rd in Selangor with 44/56 seats = X), and lost Kedah (check). For the competitive states of Terengganu and N9, BN should be able to hold both (check).

Battle of the Titans
The expectations live with the unexpected losses and gains. PAS, the conservative faction within the Pakatan Rakyat suffered the most with the top leadership falling to win. Deputy President Mat Sabu (Pendang), Harun Din (Arau), Husam Musa (Putrajaya), and Dr Dzul (Kuala Selangor) lost the federal battles. Salahuddin Ayub (Pulai) lead the charge for PAS in Johor, but fell short. Even President Hadi Awang, lost the state seat, and couldn't muster an overwhelming victory in his stronghold of Marang. All in all the liberal faction who lead the charge lost. PAS is at a crossroad, as its electorate are uncomfortable with the current direction. If PAS decides to go towards the right (which they will), they might alienate the Chinese votes who had unexpected propelled PAS to having more seats than PKR in the state of Selangor!

On the side note, PAS youth chief Nasrudin Hassan, whom was rumored to be sent to the gallows emerge victoriously, slaying Higher Education Minister Saifuddin Abdullah in the Temerloh constituency.

For PKR, its generals benefitted from the strong Chinese current, particularly to Puteri Reformasi, VP1, and daughter of Anwar Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar. The Battle of Lembah Pantai, a mix seat of 55% Malay, 23% Chinese, and 20% Indians, was the most anticipated with ex-Federal Territory Minister Raja Nong Chik, playing Goliath had begun his campaign since 2010. With unlimited resources (federal budget and rumored billionaire, and a superior machinery, Nong Chik played the role of Godfather - paving roads, rebuilding community parks, centres, food outlets, giving housing, attending every single invited weddings and funerals - to the poorer district of Kampung Kerinchi and Taman Seri Sentosa. This can be a case study of superior organizing triumph over superior organization. With limited resources, and the support of the Bangsar folks, Nurul Izzah pulled an upset with victory of 1847 votes over a total of 60176. Human chains were formed around the polling centre when the Election Commission was delaying the announcement of the results late last night. FRU (Riot squads) officials were on standby, and ballot boxes were escorted by unauthorized government agents to the centre. The machinery held their ground, and denying Nong Chik his needed recount to steal the election. This could potentially be a RM100 mil lost for the ex-Minister. 

Noted observations:
1: PACA agents must stand their ground, understand the rules, and backed by ground troops.
2: The strategy of siphoning the Malay votes Kerinchi votes did not produce sufficient payoff.
3: GOTV works as the Bangsar folks came out overwhelmingly (~90%) (Expected to win with a turnout of 87%) Of course it does help that the base is overwhelming upper middle class.
4. The Indian warlords (North and South) kept their word!
5. Regardless of how superior the organization, without sufficient generals to lead, its excess is amount to waste. (3 Kingdoms - Yuan Shao vs Cao Cao; Sun Tze, "In war, numbers alone confer no advantage.")
6. Nong Chik played it right by upping the ante in his stronghold of pantai permai and kerinchi, but his men were too confident to execute the required orders.
7. Awaiting the numbers, the Malay turnout should be ~70% and the Chinese close to ~90%.

Puteri Reformasi lives to carry the WarFlag "Hope".

Lawan Tetap Lawan!

The results were devastating to Sec-Gen Saifuddin Nasution, who lost the Kulim Bandar Bahru seat by 1871 votes. Saifuddin was expected to sail through but was by Dr. M. waves of recapturing Kedah. This loss will change the internal dynamics within PKR.

Other PKR titans who lost include Datuk Chua Jui Meng (Segamat) to Dr. S. Subramaniam by 1204 votes, Datuk Paduka Tan Yee Kew (Tanjong Malim) to Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan (He's expected to take over the MCA Leadership), and Dr. M. Monutty (Bagan Serai) lost by 1040 votes.

Excluding gains, PKR lost 8 seats including Balik Pulau (Which is expected - Check).

The biggest winner is DAP. However they suffered the most from the fraudulent practices of MCA/BN. It was supposed to be a wipe off for MCA but last minute recount rescued Health Minister Liow Tiong Lai (Bentong) by a mere 300+ seats,  and Chua Tee Yong (Labis) by a mere ~300+ seats.

Other MCA warlords who lost include Kong Cho Ha (Lumut), and Chor Chee Heung (Alor Setar). MCA has lost the support of the Chinese community with >90% of Chinese voters rejecting the party. It turns out that Ong Tee Keat played his cards right by letting go of Pandan. He can now mount a successful challenge for the presidency.

Forward!
Let today be the day of grief for the Pakatan supporters and troops. Tomorrow will be a better day, with more work needed to be done. Grassroots ought to be reorganized. Logistics must be made a top priority. We need a leader like Howard Dean who came out with a 50-state plan to "fight at every state, city, and county".

Azmin Ali has to be given credit for mounting a successful offense in Selangor. More of this on following posts.

Dr. M. has shown his relevancy, and his political acuteness at this election. By successfully conquering the northern block, he had disprove the concept that PKR strength lies in the North. More so, by PM Najib not able to capture Selangor, UMNO will be continuous in turmoil over the next 5 years!

"Nothing is harder to see into than people's nature.
The sage looks at subtle phenomena
and listens to small voices.
This harmonizes the outside with the inside
and the inside with the outside."
(from the Records of the Loyal Lord of Warriors)

"Detach from emotions and desires; get rid of any fixations."

"The loss of any army is always caused by underestimating the enemy. Therefore gather information and watch the enemy carefully."

"Good generals select intelligent officers, thoughtful advisors, and brave subordinates. They oversee their troops like a fierce tiger with wings."

"You are harmed by decadence when judgment is based on private views, when forces are mobilized for personal reasons. These generals are treacherous and immoral."

Zhuge Liang Quotes, www.zhuge-liang.net

The Butterfly Effect

The ButterFly Effect is known to be events that are construe from a series of unintended consequences. The fight of Gelang Patah has set this Effect to the main political parties - DAP, MCA, PKR, and UMNO - derailing the plans of both the heroes and villain.

The first was the dethrone of PKR strongman, who whom DSAI took much effort to woo over in 2009, Datuk Chua Jui Meng. He was the appointed as the PKR Chief of Johor, and had been preparing the ground for the eventual run of Gelang Patah comes this GE. Alas, the effort came to naught when DSAI declared DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang as the candidate on March 16*.

A brief history of P162. Gelang Patah - MCA won the seat with a 8851 majority over the PKR candidate in the 2008 GE12. Though sizable, it was a reduce margins as MCA won with a majority of 31,666 votes in 2004. Today, the number of voters had swell by over 25% to 106,864 voters - 52% Chinese, 34% Malay, and 12% Indians. Hence the intense competition over this seat, as it's one of the three Chinese majority seats in Johor; the others being Bakri, and Kulai.

The consequence was an abrupt blackout from Datuk Chua. Regardless of DSAI intent of offering this Class A seat to its partner; DAP thought it had secured another round of victorious negotiation - gaining  one, losing none. Political analysts and the media already predicting a +1 victory for DAP, PR, and Lim Kit Siang, and dared MCA to field in their best candidate; preferably its Commander-in-Chief Dato Chua Soi Lek. This forced the MCA President back to the board room for a restrategizing session. The pressure was on, particularly from the UMNO warlords to have him contesting P162 - pitting the two most prominent Chinese leaders from rival factions for the Chinese voters to decide. Rumor came out that perhaps Deputy Education Minister Wee might be the scape goat to replace the President. Then something most unexpected occur! Johor MB Ghani Othman, whom was the Chief of the state since 1995, and had recently lost favor and not expected to be fielded in this GE13, suddenly found salvation to thrust his political career forward. A savvy politician who has a keen sense to opportunity; volunteered to face off with Lim Kit Siang. This outcome was a total surprise to practically the whole nation - making Gelang Patah the No 1 most anticipated battle in the nation. 

The unintended consequences to this revelation sent ripple effects to several prominent leaders. Ong Tee Keat, ex-MCA President, who still harbors to make a comeback, is expecting to be fielded in his stronghold of Pandan, Selangor by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. This is despite heavy objections by Dato Chua Soi Lek. But by trading off an MCA seat to UMNO, he got to fulfill his desire of securing his position in the party by removing OTK out from this GE!. Thus OTK becomes the 2nd victim, after Chua Jui Meng. The third victim was President Chua himself, as by backing out from the fight in Gelang Patah, has crippled himself and thus out from the current battle. It appears that Gelang Patah has finally settled the score for the old MCA rivals - 3 warlords but no victors. DAP seems to overplay their confidence and suffer a severe defeat in Johor due to the immense arrogance displayed publicly.

DAP might choose to double down on their strategy with the rumor of fielding Tony Pua to Kulai. The price of defeat may be too high for such a move as Tony has been a vivid and effective fundraiser to the party. Regardless, the biggest loser may just be the Chinese community in this nation. In this case, voting either for the incumbent or PR as akin to cutting of one leg or the other when contracting an acute infection.

This battle would bring either greater glory or an expedient retirement to the 72 year old veteran DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang. This will be his last GE owing to this age and health. Perhaps history will remember him kindly for this heroic undertaking.

As for Datuk Chua Jui Meng, he will be facing off with Human Resource Minister S. Subramaniam of MIC in Segamat. With just 3 weeks to polling, there might not be enough time to prepare sufficient field work for a successful operation. Even with an expected loss, Datuk Chua will give S. Subramaniam a run for his money. The voter demographics of P140 consists of 46% Chinese, 44% Malay and 10% Indians. Pakatan Rakyat's groundwork is still at its infant stage in Johor, and is expected to obtain between 15-20% of the Malay electorate - only an irritable punch. A 30% Chinese support is sufficient for BN to maintain the fort, with a probable loss of Bakri and Kluang.

The next political conundrum is Ong Tee Keat. Will he contest Pandan as an independent; thus earning the wrath of his former comrades and risk being sack from the party and dashing his dreams of making a comeback to the Presidency? Or will he sit out an wait for the next opportunity; severely weaken by not being an elected representative? Alternatively, but unlikely, crossing over to PR, most likely to the DAP. This would certainly be an irrational move as it brings only short term glory but long term banishment.

The consequence of this Gelang Patah feat of winning an extra seat for DAP turns out to be a bluff at the finale.











(Will be correcting my grammer later, and with updated progress)









*the date the news was leaked