The ButterFly Effect is known to be events that are construe from a series of unintended consequences. The fight of Gelang Patah has set this Effect to the main political parties - DAP, MCA, PKR, and UMNO - derailing the plans of both the heroes and villain.
The first was the dethrone of PKR strongman, who whom DSAI took much effort to woo over in 2009, Datuk Chua Jui Meng. He was the appointed as the PKR Chief of Johor, and had been preparing the ground for the eventual run of Gelang Patah comes this GE. Alas, the effort came to naught when DSAI declared DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang as the candidate on March 16*.
A brief history of P162. Gelang Patah - MCA won the seat with a 8851 majority over the PKR candidate in the 2008 GE12. Though sizable, it was a reduce margins as MCA won with a majority of 31,666 votes in 2004. Today, the number of voters had swell by over 25% to 106,864 voters - 52% Chinese, 34% Malay, and 12% Indians. Hence the intense competition over this seat, as it's one of the three Chinese majority seats in Johor; the others being Bakri, and Kulai.
The consequence was an abrupt blackout from Datuk Chua. Regardless of DSAI intent of offering this Class A seat to its partner; DAP thought it had secured another round of victorious negotiation - gaining one, losing none. Political analysts and the media already predicting a +1 victory for DAP, PR, and Lim Kit Siang, and dared MCA to field in their best candidate; preferably its Commander-in-Chief Dato Chua Soi Lek. This forced the MCA President back to the board room for a restrategizing session. The pressure was on, particularly from the UMNO warlords to have him contesting P162 - pitting the two most prominent Chinese leaders from rival factions for the Chinese voters to decide. Rumor came out that perhaps Deputy Education Minister Wee might be the scape goat to replace the President. Then something most unexpected occur! Johor MB Ghani Othman, whom was the Chief of the state since 1995, and had recently lost favor and not expected to be fielded in this GE13, suddenly found salvation to thrust his political career forward. A savvy politician who has a keen sense to opportunity; volunteered to face off with Lim Kit Siang. This outcome was a total surprise to practically the whole nation - making Gelang Patah the No 1 most anticipated battle in the nation.
The unintended consequences to this revelation sent ripple effects to several prominent leaders. Ong Tee Keat, ex-MCA President, who still harbors to make a comeback, is expecting to be fielded in his stronghold of Pandan, Selangor by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. This is despite heavy objections by Dato Chua Soi Lek. But by trading off an MCA seat to UMNO, he got to fulfill his desire of securing his position in the party by removing OTK out from this GE!. Thus OTK becomes the 2nd victim, after Chua Jui Meng. The third victim was President Chua himself, as by backing out from the fight in Gelang Patah, has crippled himself and thus out from the current battle. It appears that Gelang Patah has finally settled the score for the old MCA rivals - 3 warlords but no victors. DAP seems to overplay their confidence and suffer a severe defeat in Johor due to the immense arrogance displayed publicly.
DAP might choose to double down on their strategy with the rumor of fielding Tony Pua to Kulai. The price of defeat may be too high for such a move as Tony has been a vivid and effective fundraiser to the party. Regardless, the biggest loser may just be the Chinese community in this nation. In this case, voting either for the incumbent or PR as akin to cutting of one leg or the other when contracting an acute infection.
This battle would bring either greater glory or an expedient retirement to the 72 year old veteran DAP Supremo Lim Kit Siang. This will be his last GE owing to this age and health. Perhaps history will remember him kindly for this heroic undertaking.
As for Datuk Chua Jui Meng, he will be facing off with Human Resource Minister S. Subramaniam of MIC in Segamat. With just 3 weeks to polling, there might not be enough time to prepare sufficient field work for a successful operation. Even with an expected loss, Datuk Chua will give S. Subramaniam a run for his money. The voter demographics of P140 consists of 46% Chinese, 44% Malay and 10% Indians. Pakatan Rakyat's groundwork is still at its infant stage in Johor, and is expected to obtain between 15-20% of the Malay electorate - only an irritable punch. A 30% Chinese support is sufficient for BN to maintain the fort, with a probable loss of Bakri and Kluang.
The next political conundrum is Ong Tee Keat. Will he contest Pandan as an independent; thus earning the wrath of his former comrades and risk being sack from the party and dashing his dreams of making a comeback to the Presidency? Or will he sit out an wait for the next opportunity; severely weaken by not being an elected representative? Alternatively, but unlikely, crossing over to PR, most likely to the DAP. This would certainly be an irrational move as it brings only short term glory but long term banishment.
The consequence of this Gelang Patah feat of winning an extra seat for DAP turns out to be a bluff at the finale.
(Will be correcting my grammer later, and with updated progress)
*the date the news was leaked
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
A Tribute to the Iron Lady
The Baroness Thatcher
(13 October 1925 – 8 April 2013)
Critics often scorned Thatcher's union busting and privatization policies. The results had proven otherwise with the revitalization of the economy and producing a wave of middle class citizens. She understands the role of the government at that moment, and she fulfill her duty. That is most honorable and remarkable as she puts the nation above her self interests.
Her achievements did not come easy. Aspire politicians can learn much from Thatcher. She was resolute up till the end of her career; "No No No!" in the House of Commons when deciding whether Britain should join the ERM. History has already lay its judgement on this issue. Most important was her conviction and tenacity. Those two values enabled her to overcome ferocious opposition to her policies.
"I am not a consensus politician. I am a conviction politician."
And to further showcase her conviction and tenacity of her tactics in defeating the union bosses:-
“the rest of our programme for national recovery would be blocked. . . . Winning the next [1979] election, even by a large majority, would not be enough if the only basis for it was dissatisfaction with Labour’s performance in office since 1974. Therefore, far from avoiding the union issue – as so many of my colleagues wanted – we should seek to open up debate. Moreover, this debate was not something to fear: the unions were an increasing liability to Labour and correspondingly a political asset to us. With intelligence and courage we could turn on its head the inhibiting and often defeatist talk about ‘confrontation."
She picked her battles, and when the moment arises, decisively executed the necessary moves such as during the Winter of Discontent - a once every 16 years phenomenon; and this is when the labor unions decided to have a general strike. Thatcher approached the moment with courage and conviction, and acted to swing public opinion against the unions; delivering the first fatal blow to her political nemesis. A politician must know to act according to circumstances. The Iron Lady knew this crucial law, thus setting the stage for a Conservative victory and the Prime Ministership. I often wonder what's on her mind, when she realizes the inevitability of her premiership to Great Britain.
History has a place for great people - Margaret Thatcher included. Your actions, deeds, and values shall forever be remembered by those passionate about politics and statesmanship. May the Iron Lady rest in peace.
"Thrift was a virtue and profligacy a vice" - Margaret Thatcher
Interesting must-read. Her legacy can be debated; but her political achievements and tactical intelligence are indisputable.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/04/michael-hudson-thatchers-legacy-of-failed-privatizations.html#kSJe811O4l5xdod3.99
Monday, April 8, 2013
GE13 - Heroes and Villians
The 13th General Election will be a monumental election to be recorded in the annals of Malaysia history as generals in both the Barisan National (BN) and the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) will meet head on - the price of defeat is to retire from politics. Several top leaders, albeit more to come, have announced their intention of moving out from their strongholds to fight decisive battles - Lim Kit Siang, Liew Chin Tong, Fong Po Kuan (TBC), and Kulasegaran (TBC) from the DAP; Dato Mansor Othman, Rafiza Ramli, Datuk Chua Jui Meng (TBC), and Datuk Tan Kee Kwong from PKR; Salahuddin Ayub and Datuk Seri Mohd Nizar from PAS; and from BN, MCA old- Donald Lim, Ng Yen Yen, and Ong Ka Chuan; Devamany from the MIC; Teng Chang Yeow, and Chia Kwang Chye; and as for UMNO Dato Zainal Abidin Osman*, Raja Nong Chik and many others.
Incumbents Generalissimo - Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar, Fuziah Salleh, Ong Tee Keat, Chor Chee Heung, Subramaniam, Kong Cho Ha*, Dato Seri Nazri*, andDatuk Seri Hishammudin* - these dignified individuals will be facing tempestuous battles profuse with malign sentiments.
With 79 seats out of 222 (166 in the Peninsula, 56 from Sabah and Sarawak), DS Anwar Ibrahim will need at least another 40 seats to form the next federal government. An uphill but possible task, DSAI believes that PR can win up to 12 seats in Johor, 8 in Sarawak, 12 in Sabah, while capturing another 8 more seats from PR leaning states in the North. Or in the words of Tian Chua, PKR senior VP and head of the Heavenly faction, "10 from Johor, 10 from Sabah, and 10 from Sarawak". Such is the optimism of our top leadership - endless possibilities and victory inevitable!
Arithmetic
In the 2008 elections, the PR had 30% Malay support, 75% Chinese support, and 70% Indian support. If we maintain this ratio, the results will be status quo of retaining 5 states and denying BN the 2/3rd majority - a victory for PR as it realizes a 2-party system in Malaysia. To win the federal government, PR would need a minimum of 80% Chinese support, at least 60% Indian support and 40% Malay support. Pakatan Rakyat leaders are confident to meet this desired numbers. Any deviation from this figures would bring an element of surprise and changes to the leadership structure of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
Thus the deviation is the most probable.
Recent survey, which I concur, has shown that Pakatan Rakyat has max the support of the Chinese community at 82%. In urban areas such as the Klang Valley, the support could surpass 90% and semi-rural areas/ old-towns the support at about 65%. As for Johor, I expect our Chinese support to be 2/3, at 67%.
As for the Indian support, it can be no doubt that PR is losing this group of electorate, possibly winning only 40% of the community - a combination of educated and urban votes with some rural votes. The loss is attributed to the lack of fieldwork - logistical as our leaders refuse to invest in the necessary infrastructure. The reasons could be owing to the lack of funding, and sufficient top Indian leaders in the coalition. Thus I expect PR to get 40% and BN 60%.
The Malay electorate will be the deciding factor into the formation of the next Federal Government. At a base line of 30% support to PR, the electorate has increase by about 2-4% national; thus being the absolute kingmakers in most seats. This is particularly significant to Selangor where an erosion of Malay support might cause PR to lose this prized state. A loss of Selangor would mean a consolidation of powers to the PM DS Najib Razak - stability to UMNO and deep vulnerability to the survival of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
Sadly, I'm expecting the erosion of the Malay support to between 22% - 25%. This is attributed to the 3 Rs - Race, Religion, and Royalty - a potent combination that has never fail to rally any conservative base in the world. The counter to this stratagem is superior fieldwork, but this has yet to be done by the PR leaders as like I've said before - boring and requires hardwork.
Consequences
If indeed the Pakatan Rakyat receives 82% of Chinese support, 40% of Indian support and 22-25% of Malay support, the dynamics of the PR coalition would undergo severe changes. This would be an abrogation of the PR leadership, especially to the leaders in PKR and PAS. The hold on the state of Selangor could be as low as 3-seats, an uncomfortable margin to the current 36-20. In terms of parliamentary seats, DAP would emerge as the victor with close to or about 40 seats, an increment of at least 10, while PAS and PKR will lose 3-5 seats each on aggregate.
The relationship between the parties, and the leadership structure would undergo shocking political vicissitudes. This new relationship shall be thoroughly discuss in subsequent posts as it involves leadership tussle in winning states particularly the prized Selangor.
But, PR can find comfort that BN is being denied their 2/3rd majority twice in a row and will have to get use to the new political reality. The winner will be ordinary Malaysians, and the biggest loser will be the Barisan National coalition, with its component parties pulverized!
What will happen to UMNO except for another five years of internal instability?
Next: Battle of the Titans
* indicates possibilities
Updates: It seems that PKR is not going to give the Home Minister Hishammudin a fight for his political career.
Incumbents Generalissimo - Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, Nurul Izzah Anwar, Fuziah Salleh, Ong Tee Keat, Chor Chee Heung, Subramaniam, Kong Cho Ha*, Dato Seri Nazri*, and
With 79 seats out of 222 (166 in the Peninsula, 56 from Sabah and Sarawak), DS Anwar Ibrahim will need at least another 40 seats to form the next federal government. An uphill but possible task, DSAI believes that PR can win up to 12 seats in Johor, 8 in Sarawak, 12 in Sabah, while capturing another 8 more seats from PR leaning states in the North. Or in the words of Tian Chua, PKR senior VP and head of the Heavenly faction, "10 from Johor, 10 from Sabah, and 10 from Sarawak". Such is the optimism of our top leadership - endless possibilities and victory inevitable!
Arithmetic
In the 2008 elections, the PR had 30% Malay support, 75% Chinese support, and 70% Indian support. If we maintain this ratio, the results will be status quo of retaining 5 states and denying BN the 2/3rd majority - a victory for PR as it realizes a 2-party system in Malaysia. To win the federal government, PR would need a minimum of 80% Chinese support, at least 60% Indian support and 40% Malay support. Pakatan Rakyat leaders are confident to meet this desired numbers. Any deviation from this figures would bring an element of surprise and changes to the leadership structure of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
Thus the deviation is the most probable.
Recent survey, which I concur, has shown that Pakatan Rakyat has max the support of the Chinese community at 82%. In urban areas such as the Klang Valley, the support could surpass 90% and semi-rural areas/ old-towns the support at about 65%. As for Johor, I expect our Chinese support to be 2/3, at 67%.
As for the Indian support, it can be no doubt that PR is losing this group of electorate, possibly winning only 40% of the community - a combination of educated and urban votes with some rural votes. The loss is attributed to the lack of fieldwork - logistical as our leaders refuse to invest in the necessary infrastructure. The reasons could be owing to the lack of funding, and sufficient top Indian leaders in the coalition. Thus I expect PR to get 40% and BN 60%.
The Malay electorate will be the deciding factor into the formation of the next Federal Government. At a base line of 30% support to PR, the electorate has increase by about 2-4% national; thus being the absolute kingmakers in most seats. This is particularly significant to Selangor where an erosion of Malay support might cause PR to lose this prized state. A loss of Selangor would mean a consolidation of powers to the PM DS Najib Razak - stability to UMNO and deep vulnerability to the survival of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
Sadly, I'm expecting the erosion of the Malay support to between 22% - 25%. This is attributed to the 3 Rs - Race, Religion, and Royalty - a potent combination that has never fail to rally any conservative base in the world. The counter to this stratagem is superior fieldwork, but this has yet to be done by the PR leaders as like I've said before - boring and requires hardwork.
Consequences
If indeed the Pakatan Rakyat receives 82% of Chinese support, 40% of Indian support and 22-25% of Malay support, the dynamics of the PR coalition would undergo severe changes. This would be an abrogation of the PR leadership, especially to the leaders in PKR and PAS. The hold on the state of Selangor could be as low as 3-seats, an uncomfortable margin to the current 36-20. In terms of parliamentary seats, DAP would emerge as the victor with close to or about 40 seats, an increment of at least 10, while PAS and PKR will lose 3-5 seats each on aggregate.
The relationship between the parties, and the leadership structure would undergo shocking political vicissitudes. This new relationship shall be thoroughly discuss in subsequent posts as it involves leadership tussle in winning states particularly the prized Selangor.
But, PR can find comfort that BN is being denied their 2/3rd majority twice in a row and will have to get use to the new political reality. The winner will be ordinary Malaysians, and the biggest loser will be the Barisan National coalition, with its component parties pulverized!
What will happen to UMNO except for another five years of internal instability?
Next: Battle of the Titans
* indicates possibilities
Updates: It seems that PKR is not going to give the Home Minister Hishammudin a fight for his political career.
Saturday, April 6, 2013
Political Organization
Day 2,3,4 and (5): Lobbying
With D-Day impending, the jostling for seats is getting very much heated, with insiders leaking information on who's at where's and what! Sandiwaras such as the 'not keen to contest', 'subject to party leadership', or 'for the greater good' have become common occurrences. It almost as if the candidates and candidates wannabes are the most altruistic and noblest individuals, devoting their family and lives to the well-being of the general populace. Politics is not a high school. Elections is not a popularity contest. Governance is not a student leadership council. Elections have consequences. Politics dictates the direction of the nation - the economy, the security, the wages! Politics is a career choice, just like a doctor, a lawyer, an entrepreneur, a business tycoon; it's repetitive, boring, and requires hard work. Most importantly, politics is no charity. The people are not selecting public servants, rather are electing a member of their community to lead and to represent them. They are selecting their 'boss', the chief executive. Politicians are not accountable to the people, only to the party bosses and constituents; just like the management of a public listed company is not beholden to common shareholders; but only to major ones, who have a seat in the board. Thus politics is a game of perception, where the bluffs can be call, with consequences!
Last night, Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced his intention to stay in Permatang Pauh. That should be the case as now is not the time for the senior to be adventurous. PR needs him to campaign around the nation, and he would not be able to do so unless he stays in his stronghold. Though argument can be made that moving to Perak would be the wiser move, as PR needs to expand the parliamentary seat for DSAI to become the next Prime Minister. A move to Tambun would rattle the ranks of his old nemesis - Dr. M and the old UMNO machinery. The commander-in-chief of the PR would be leading the charge to recapture Perak, the morale of the troops be very much uplifted. It comes with a risk, but the risk is worth as DSAI needs only to move around Perak and Selangor. The battle down south is a battle for the Rocket to expand their base; and the East is still a PAS battleground.
Early rumors has it that DSAI would contest in either Lumut, or Padang Rengas. Lumut should have been the preferred choice as it has a 35% chinese base; and the incumbent MCA sec-gen DS Kong Cho Ha won by a mere 298 votes. This victory no doubt is won through postal voting by the army as there are several army camps in the vicinity of Lumut. This can be overcome with the support from the Malay ground to DSAI. Alas, this is now mere fantasy. An opportunity unrealized.
Political Organization
What consists of a political organization? It's the management of five elements - general strategy, groundwork, messaging, planning, and fundraising. The key to having the most successful organization lies to its groundwork and fundraising prowess. Grassroots organization and fundraising are the most difficult tasks and therefore often neglected by almost all politicians. Most prefer to do only messaging; as the reward comes upfront, but during election itself, has very minimal impact. The political maestro, Lee Kuan Yew, had concurred with the above statement, having stating that parliamentary debates are meant for the elites - a theatre to appease the what conservaties like Rush Limbaugh loves to say "latte sipping Starbucks liberals". All politics are local! Period! It's bread and butter after all, with a touch of emotional connection.
Harry Reid, the majority leader in the US Senate, was expected to lose his reelection during the shellacking 2010 campaign, but he prevailed, to the disgust of Republicans, while throwing political analysts off guard. I've stated on record that he will prevail, because he understands politics. He understands the nature and the importance of groundwork, or fieldwork in the States. Now he's the most powerful politician in the Legislature and possibly the whole US administration. He's probably the 2nd most powerful Majority Leader in the Senate after Lyndon B. Johnson - one of my favorite politicians of all time.
This is no different in Malaysia. To win an election means having the necessary groundwork. This means having develop the logistical proficiently to deliver the votes and to ensure the votes are counted as it is.
Stalin - "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the vote"
Or, to be more precise
"You know, comrades," says Stalin, "that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how."
Winning an election is no different that winning a war, it's a battle of logistics and a battle of attrition. These factors shall be explain in my later post.
GOTV - Got Out the Votes
I was actually very surprise to see this word in our briefing. Of course it has been translated as "Getting out the voters" (As I had stated in my previous post, very different strategies involve). Regardless, GOTV is the core principal to groundwork - grassroots building, and fieldwork.
The party expects to implement GOTV within 3 weeks to polling. This is a really big misconception to a well thought political strategy. A well run GOTV can produce miracles, such as the Howard Dean 50-states strategy that lay the path to subsequent Democrats and Obama victories in the Red states, and Obama triumphs over Hillary during the hotly contested 2008 primary. The lesson in this is that GOTV takes time. It requires real work - planning, fundraising - and lots of effort and hard work. More so, it needs at least 15 months to lay an effective GOTV. There is no shortcut to GOTV.
The concept of GOTV is to churn out supporters, particularly in unfamiliar or opposing territories. Thus a successful GOTV will allow the candidate/party to find friends in the 'black' areas. This is to dispel the myth that GOTV will turn 'black' areas 'white'. Likewise, you don't educate the voters, you appeal to the emotional attachment of the voters to make them feel familiar/intimate.
According to PKR Deputy President Azmin Ali, the list of candidates for all seats should be finalize by Sunday. This is a matter of urgency as candidates wil not move if uncertain of its status - a problem face by politicians from both side of the aisle. Already, the jockeying has reach fantastical new heights with magniloquent obituaries delivered to political rivals. Keep it coming.
Last night, Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced his intention to stay in Permatang Pauh. That should be the case as now is not the time for the senior to be adventurous. PR needs him to campaign around the nation, and he would not be able to do so unless he stays in his stronghold. Though argument can be made that moving to Perak would be the wiser move, as PR needs to expand the parliamentary seat for DSAI to become the next Prime Minister. A move to Tambun would rattle the ranks of his old nemesis - Dr. M and the old UMNO machinery. The commander-in-chief of the PR would be leading the charge to recapture Perak, the morale of the troops be very much uplifted. It comes with a risk, but the risk is worth as DSAI needs only to move around Perak and Selangor. The battle down south is a battle for the Rocket to expand their base; and the East is still a PAS battleground.
Early rumors has it that DSAI would contest in either Lumut, or Padang Rengas. Lumut should have been the preferred choice as it has a 35% chinese base; and the incumbent MCA sec-gen DS Kong Cho Ha won by a mere 298 votes. This victory no doubt is won through postal voting by the army as there are several army camps in the vicinity of Lumut. This can be overcome with the support from the Malay ground to DSAI. Alas, this is now mere fantasy. An opportunity unrealized.
Political Organization
What consists of a political organization? It's the management of five elements - general strategy, groundwork, messaging, planning, and fundraising. The key to having the most successful organization lies to its groundwork and fundraising prowess. Grassroots organization and fundraising are the most difficult tasks and therefore often neglected by almost all politicians. Most prefer to do only messaging; as the reward comes upfront, but during election itself, has very minimal impact. The political maestro, Lee Kuan Yew, had concurred with the above statement, having stating that parliamentary debates are meant for the elites - a theatre to appease the what conservaties like Rush Limbaugh loves to say "latte sipping Starbucks liberals". All politics are local! Period! It's bread and butter after all, with a touch of emotional connection.
Harry Reid, the majority leader in the US Senate, was expected to lose his reelection during the shellacking 2010 campaign, but he prevailed, to the disgust of Republicans, while throwing political analysts off guard. I've stated on record that he will prevail, because he understands politics. He understands the nature and the importance of groundwork, or fieldwork in the States. Now he's the most powerful politician in the Legislature and possibly the whole US administration. He's probably the 2nd most powerful Majority Leader in the Senate after Lyndon B. Johnson - one of my favorite politicians of all time.
This is no different in Malaysia. To win an election means having the necessary groundwork. This means having develop the logistical proficiently to deliver the votes and to ensure the votes are counted as it is.
Stalin - "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the vote"
Or, to be more precise
"You know, comrades," says Stalin, "that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how."
Winning an election is no different that winning a war, it's a battle of logistics and a battle of attrition. These factors shall be explain in my later post.
GOTV - Got Out the Votes
I was actually very surprise to see this word in our briefing. Of course it has been translated as "Getting out the voters" (As I had stated in my previous post, very different strategies involve). Regardless, GOTV is the core principal to groundwork - grassroots building, and fieldwork.
The party expects to implement GOTV within 3 weeks to polling. This is a really big misconception to a well thought political strategy. A well run GOTV can produce miracles, such as the Howard Dean 50-states strategy that lay the path to subsequent Democrats and Obama victories in the Red states, and Obama triumphs over Hillary during the hotly contested 2008 primary. The lesson in this is that GOTV takes time. It requires real work - planning, fundraising - and lots of effort and hard work. More so, it needs at least 15 months to lay an effective GOTV. There is no shortcut to GOTV.
The concept of GOTV is to churn out supporters, particularly in unfamiliar or opposing territories. Thus a successful GOTV will allow the candidate/party to find friends in the 'black' areas. This is to dispel the myth that GOTV will turn 'black' areas 'white'. Likewise, you don't educate the voters, you appeal to the emotional attachment of the voters to make them feel familiar/intimate.
According to PKR Deputy President Azmin Ali, the list of candidates for all seats should be finalize by Sunday. This is a matter of urgency as candidates wil not move if uncertain of its status - a problem face by politicians from both side of the aisle. Already, the jockeying has reach fantastical new heights with magniloquent obituaries delivered to political rivals. Keep it coming.
May the odds be ever in your favor!
Further discussion of political strategies will follow, as well as its relevance to our GE13 and how it would impact the results.
Disclaimer: These views are honest and private to 'me'. For reading purposes only, no reposting allow. Please respect my privacy of thoughts and emotions. Allow me to be objective and most importantly truthful.
Further discussion of political strategies will follow, as well as its relevance to our GE13 and how it would impact the results.
Disclaimer: These views are honest and private to 'me'. For reading purposes only, no reposting allow. Please respect my privacy of thoughts and emotions. Allow me to be objective and most importantly truthful.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
My Story So Far - Malaysia and the 13th General Election
Banners and flags of political parties can be seen fluttering; palpitating the hearts and minds of most Malaysians like the flapping of butterflies. This occurrence has already been the norm as this nation, known as bolehland been put on election mode since the late 2011. In February, postals and stickers of elected representatives, or the Yang Berhormats (YBs) and YB-wannabes can be seen beaming with the widest and most alluring smiles, in major highways, cities, and towns inclusive both urban and rural alike. This will be the most divisive election. The electorate has already made up their minds. The people is ready to vote. But the Prime Minister is not..... till today!
At precisely 11.30 am today, the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dato Seri Najib Tun Razak, had dissolved the Parliament, paving the way for the 13th General Election. Finally D-day has arrived.
The Beginning
It started in 2008, with the ruling Barisan National (BN) expecting an overwhelming victory - a norm for the past 50 years, was astonished with the loss of 5 out of 13 states, losing 82 out of 222 seats, and foregoing the 2/3rd majority in Parliament for the first time since Independence. The opposition - Pakatan Rakyat (PR) - captured the prized state of Selangor, as well as Penang, Perak, Kedah, and the usual Kelantan. 46.75% of the populace voted for PR. Though in 2009 Perak fell back to BN through a sordid and unscrupulous political coup (though PR leaders had been warned but failed to take appropriate measures), and several YBs had shifted to pro-BN independent MPs; the Pakatan Rakyat alliance remained intact - remarkable to the eyes of political operatives in the ruling coalition. Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), led by ex-DPM Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim and the noble Datin Seri Wan Azizah (Kak Wan); the Democratic Action Party (DAP) led by supremo Lim Kik Siang, and his son, the chivalrous Lim Guan Eng; and PAS led by Tok Guru Nik Aziz and President Hadi Awang, are solidly united to ONE common purpose - toppling the ruling Barisan National. Already component parties in the ruling government - MCA, MIC, and Gerakan, have been severely wounded, losing the majority of the seats; and in the eyes of the draconian UMNO - the three partners had become liabilities. Unknown to UMNO was that the loss of the coalition partners is due to UMNO, over-indulging and treating the partners as derelicts. With inflation sky-rocketing, while the princelings and the politically connected gnawing bigger slices of the economic pie; the silent majority in the urban states shocked the ruling coalition by voting across racial lines for the opposition - collectively.
The gerrymandering by the puppeteer, marginalizing the minority races through various means - having an extremely large constituency or splitting the minority races to only roughly 20+ to 40+ percentage of the electorate in the constituency; - backfired! (through a minor split among the majority and a united minority to produce a small but decisive victory in the first-past-the-post electoral system)
Where 'I' come in
Having return from the states; fulfilling my childhood dreams of working for the Clintons ^^! (land of opportunities where dreams do come true); I started as a political aide for the young, and charismatic Nurul Izzah Anwar - daughter of the opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. It was another dream came true as I was thrusted into the halls of power, always on the push! Being one of the four Praetorian guards (a term we call ourselves), it was success after success, out-maneuvering and abashing political adversaries - externally and internally. It was most awesome when my prepared speech on democracy successfully baited Dato Seri Nazri, the Minister of Law into agreeing with our point of view,stating on captured TV "You are correct!"; and being the man in charge, and winning the most votes as vice-president in the party internal and first direct open elections despite all the negativity and chicanery that was threw upon us (Might I add that I maybe one of the few who had the experience in a primary process). It was captivating.
All good things must come to an end. The markings were on the wall. I could feel it, yet powerless to change fate. Being ardent, yet naive; I entangled into a young man's folly - slightly arrogant, thought invincible to negative attacks by trusted comrades - fell out of grace and decided to take a break. That had consequence with all the Praetorian being out of favor (and only one left today). It was dark, it was stormy, and in the words of Churchill, "...I have worked very hard all my life and I have achieved a great deal, in the end to achieve nothing'.
Fate would have it that I remain in this field. Being involve in local rather than national politics, and having the time to improve, and to catch up on the readings - Churchill, Roosevelt, Eisenshower, to the leaders of the 21st century etc.
Today 3/4 - Day 1 of Dissolution
I remember telling the team, on record, that we'll have an election in April 2011, and it was the dissolvement of the Sarawak State Assembly; and we would have another till the end. I have to admit that i'm off by a week, predicting the dissolution to be on the 9th of April rather than the 3rd. Only the Prime Minister knows and he had chose today as D-day. Nominations should be within the next 10 days and the polling expected to be on the 27th/28th of April.
Over the next 3 weeks, I shall discussed strategies and fore-castings. Unlike many junkies/pundits, I usually make it clear what i think the results will be; with basis, because I too want to continuous improve by learning from what is right and what is wrong. It could the over/under estimation of the electoral mood; a data error (lacking of updated data owing to too much noise); pure bias owing to emotional attachment, or just plain wrong. Because politics is living, just like the law is living.
I attended a late night meeting today - surprised at the presentation with newly updated terms such as GOTV (Get out the vote rather than Getting out the voters; very different as it involve different stratagems), elaborate organizational structures, and so on. Obviously Team Obama is doing well, providing political consultations to political parties all over the world. (**More like 101 reports but sold at exorbitant rates) Needless, these are interesting times.
Disclaimer: These views are honest and private to 'me'. For reading purposes only, no reposting allow. Please respect my privacy of thoughts and emotions. Allow me to be objective and most importantly truthful.
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